Checking In On Kansas City's Bullpen Battles
3 Royals relievers struggling to make their mark in Spring Training
Following a fine start to Spring Training, Royals pitching is in a rut. Heading into Wednesday night’s clash with Seattle, their 6.03 ERA through 11 games ranks 25th in MLB.
Cole Ragans has allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings. Seth Lugo’s coughed up six runs in five frames. Lucas Erceg and Michael Wacha have each tossed two innings and watched three runners cross home plate apiece.
But none of those four are at risk of losing a roster spot. In fact, their roles are secure to the point their spring numbers truly mean nothing, unless the struggles are the result of an unannounced ailment.
In other words: Who cares?
There are a few Royals pitchers, though, whose early difficulties in Surprise are pushing them closer to a demotion or designation for assignment.
These underwhelming performances do matter, both for the players themselves (job security) and the ripple effects and ramifications it’ll have on the rest of the roster should they be demoted, DFA’d or, worse, make the roster out of necessity and pitch poorly in the regular season.
I’ve focused on the positives out of camp to this point (pitch model darlings, Statcast stars) because, hey, that’s what Spring Training is about — sunshine and rainbows. And, to be honest, I wasn’t sure this new publication would get much traction among Royals fans if I spouted doom and gloom from the jump.
We’re close enough to the season now (Opening Day is in three weeks!) that poor performance is beginning to matter. It can’t all be chalked up to “He’s working on a new pitch!” or “He’s getting ramped up!” For these three veterans, the honeymoon stage of spring is over, or perilously close.
Carlos Hernandez
Spring Stats: 4 IP, 11.25 ERA, 5 Hits, 5 K, 1 BB, 1 HR
Hernandez is on thin ice, both in the minds of Royals fans and in accordance with MLB’s roster rules — he’s mostly underwhelmed in five seasons with the Big League club and he’s now out of minor league options. It’s do or die for the 27-year-old flamethrower.
In four appearances this spring, he’s coughed up five runs, most of that damage coming in his first outing against the Dodgers on Feb. 22 when he allowed two singles and a walk before a three-run bomb off the bat of David Bote sent his ERA to the moon before he had a chance to breathe.
He followed it up with two clean innings, one against the Rangers and another against the Diamondbacks, then gave up another two knocks and a run against Texas on March 3.
In short, it’s been the Carlos Hernandez Experience: a rollercoaster.
Spring stats are what they are. We can give him a pass for the early blowup against Los Angeles, but the bigger concern is his typically electric stuff. The four-seamer is down about a tick from 2024 and the pitch isn’t getting as much run either, leading to a five-point decline in tjStuff+ from 108 to 103. That’s across a 30-pitch sample, so while it’s not enough to be considered reliable (~80 pitches), it’s certainly not a positive for a righty on the roster bubble. His curveball, slider and splitter are all showing decreased velocity and tjStuff+, too.
To Hernandez’s credit, he’s walked just one of 18 batters faced (5.6% vs. 11.2% career) despite a first-pitch strike rate of only 39%. Maybe he’s ramping up and the velocity and stuff will return, but he’s running out of time to avoid finding himself on the outside looking in.
Ross Stripling
Spring Stats: 2 IP, 22.50 ERA, 5 Hits, 1 K, 0 BB, 2 HR
Stripling was a late arrival to camp, signing a one-year minor league deal on Feb. 19 after a career-worst 6.01 ERA with the Athletics in 2024. For all the talk about his 3.89 FIP that pointed to some bad luck, he posted a career-worst strikeout rate (12.9%), K-BB (7.1%), CSW (25.3%) and FanGraphs Stuff+ (87). Even his previously dominant changeup was down to a 102 FGStuff+, just barely above average, but a changeup alone can’t make up for the three well below-average fastball variations he offered last season.
He’s faced just 11 hitters and Stripling’s five-run blowup against Milwaukee on Feb. 27 didn’t feature Statcast, so we’re working with something well short of a full picture. Still, he’s shown nothing to lead us to believe the stuff can play in the zone in 2025 after a long, successful career with the Dodgers and Blue Jays.
You can’t fault Kansas City one bit for taking a low-risk gamble, but it looks like they’ve come up snake eyes on a 35-year-old who’s almost certainly past his Major League expiration date.
Sam Long
Spring Stats: 1.2 IP, 16.20 ERA, 4 Hits, 0 K, 1 BB, 2 HR
I’m a fan of the 29-year-old lefty so it pains me to see him get off to a rocky start, even if it’s just two appearances. Long was hit by a comebacker against the Rangers on Monday after throwing just eight pitches, so an already small sample is even further limited. He recorded two outs but gave up a hit and a walk before exiting, and that’s after getting bombarded for three runs on two homers against Arizona on Feb. 28.
Long arrived in Kansas City last year and was immediately encouraged (instructed?) to decrease the usage of his four-seamer and curveball to rely more heavily on his nasty 85 MPH bullet slider. The revamped repertoire made perfect sense, as the slider grades out as clearly his best pitch: 116 FGStuff+ in 2024 compared to 94 FGStuff+ marks for the heater and hammer.
Across 2021-2023, Long’s fastball allowed slugging averages of .484, .485 and .522 — throwing it less helped it play up, leading to a .373 slug against. The changes led to a breakout with career-bests 3.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 25% K and 15.3% K-BB.
Nothing about his arsenal this spring causes concern. In fact, tjStuff+ grades his 30-pitch sample at 98 after a 97 tjStuff+ in 2024. He’s allowed quite a bit of hard contact (95.2 MPH average exit velocity and 62.5% hard-hit rate) but that may be as simple as a small sample combined with his 63.3% zone mark, largely due to throwing a first-pitch strike to just one hitter of nine so far — he’s had to battle back in basically every matchup. The spring O-Swing rate is in line with last year at 27%, and while the whiff rate is down from 27% to 20%, that, too, could simply be chalked up to throwing a ton of strikes through two outings.
Suffice it to say, I’m not concerned… yet. Long is out of options, so he’s in the same boat as Hernandez, but with a much better (although shorter) track record in Kansas City. So long as the comebacker didn’t cause an injury — I’ve seen nothing to imply he’s on the shelf — I’d feel comfortable assuming he’s still safely on the roster unless his wayward ways continue.