Final 2025 Opening Day Royals Roster Projection
Kansas City is trimming its camp roster with each passing day. Who cracks the 26-man squad on March 27?
Welcome to roster projection week. We are careening toward Opening Day against the Guardians, and with the Royals making some of their latest cuts over the weekend and into Monday, I figured it’s time to get this final projection out before we’re given the answers to the test.
Not a lot has changed performance-wise in the last seven days since I published Roster Projection 2.0, but a few guys have been optioned/assigned to minor league camp (including a reliever I thought might make the roster) and I’ve had a chance to rethink some of the final spots.
Starting Pitchers (5)
Cole Ragans
Seth Lugo
Michael Wacha
Michael Lorenzen
Kris Bubic
No changes here from last time around. Ragans was officially named the Opening Day starter, so we don’t even need to quibble over the order of the five. If anything, I think Bubic further cemented himself as the fifth starter with his work on Saturday, tossing 3.1 innings with five strikeouts, no runs, three hits and one walk. There’s still time and another turn through the rotation this week for things to change, but it would have to be pretty drastic for Daniel Lynch (or anyone else) to jump Bubic.
Bullpen (8)
Lucas Erceg
Carlos Estevez
Hunter Harvey
John Schreiber
Angel Zerpa
Sam Long
Daniel Lynch
Chris Stratton
Jonathan Bowlan, who I previously penciled in for the eighth and final spot, was optioned to minor league camp Sunday. It’s not shocking by any stretch that he’ll open the season in Omaha, but I was at least mildly surprised he didn’t make it another few days. Granted, he got bombed for four runs in 1.2 innings on Saturday, so perhaps he was already on thin ice and that was all Kansas City needed to see. Plus, the closer we get to the season and the more starters get stretched out, the less innings there are to go around.
That opens the door for one of the guys who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues: Stratton or Carlos Hernandez. I’ve railed against Hernandez’s diminished velocity all spring, to the point I felt it necessary to point out on X that Erceg’s velo is also down, lest someone think I’ve simply got it out for Hernandez. While that’s definitely not the case (I’d love to see him get back to pumping triple digits!) he does seem to be the more logical candidate to cut loose.
We may not like it (because it’s not our money) but no team in MLB is eager to pay a guy $4+ million to pitch somewhere else. That’s one of the cases for carrying Stratton over Hernandez, at least for a few weeks or a month. The other arrow pointing toward Stratton is walk rate — his 6.3% mark this spring is half of Hernandez’s, who’s always had a proclivity for free passes. If I’m choosing the final piece of a ‘pen, even if the options aren’t great (are they ever?), give me the guy who’s at least going to throw strikes in a 10-2 game and get us to the next day.
Catchers (2)
Salvador Perez
Freddy Fermin
Even as Perez ages and his time behind the dish dwindles, the Royals are in great shape here. Fermin is a more-than-capable backup who allows Salvy to shift to 1B/DH without an empty spot in the lineup, as so many other backup catchers tend to be.
The only question is, exactly how many games should Perez be behind the plate? He’s been right at 90 each of the last two seasons so we can assume that’s the maximum target for Matt Quatraro — but should that number come down even further? It’ll get trickier later in the season if/when Jac Caglianone is ready to bring his bat to the Bigs as 1B/DH/corner outfield becomes even more clogged. If that time comes, it’ll be a wonderful problem to solve.
Infielders (7)
Bobby Witt Jr.
Vinnie Pasquantino
Jonathan India
Maikel Garcia
Michael Massey
Nick Loftin
Cavan Biggio
The first six remain the same for me with the addition of Biggio as a seventh infielder on the roster. That’s a bit misleading, however, as no less than five of this group can/may/will serve time in the outfield at various points this season. The smoke has become too strong to ignore with Biggio — it just feels like KC wants his versatility, plate skills and left-handed bat on the bench. He’s done everything asked of him this spring, including posting a .217/.417/.435 slash line while drawing eight(!) walks — bonus points for three of his five hits going for extra bases.
What makes this roster construction work is Garcia’s ability to play some center field, removing the need to carry a fifth outfielder whose primary calling card is defense. It’s going to take some time to find out just how adept Garcia is at managing all that open grass at Kauffman Stadium, but the team seems committed to giving him a shot to show us.
Outfielders (4)
MJ Melendez
Hunter Renfroe
Kyle Isbel
Dairon Blanco
I want to keep Nelson Velazquez (who’s out of minor league options) in this final prediction for the skillset that would blend well on this roster — he provides a nice complement to Melendez, Isbel and even Massey as a hitter who damages left-handed pitching, even in his down 2024 with a 105 wRC+. But his spring output has become too much to ignore, beyond just the paltry .150/.292/.200 slash line. Among nine batted balls, he’s averaging just a 76.6 MPH exit velocity and 12.5% hard-hit rate. The low number of opportunities tells us the club isn’t that concerned with giving him a shot, and he’s not doing much to earn more chances.
Swapping out Joey Wiemer for Blanco starts simply with Blanco being healthy. He’s back in Cactus League games, no longer hampered by the sore Achilles. For a time, I was committed to Wiemer being a better all-around player than Blanco (I do still believe that, for what it’s worth) and therefore being a better option for the Opening Day roster. But a lack of opportunity left me rethinking things.
If the Royals believe Wiemer possesses more long-term upside than Blanco, as I do, it makes sense to get him everyday at-bats in Omaha rather than playing 1-2 days a week, at best, with the big club. We’re talking about the last spot on the bench for a team that — at least in this projection — is carrying nine guys who can play the outfield. Playing time will be sparse.
The regular season is so tantalizingly close, and I’ve got some fun newsletters lined up over the next week or so, from wrapping up spring with the top Statcast performers to a final record prediction publishing on Opening Day.
Still, I’m putting out the call for your questions, topics of interest, player breakdowns you want to see or anything else you’d like to read about. Feel free to comment here, reach out on X or DM me if anything comes to mind!
One series I plan to implement this season, perhaps biweekly, is Stat Study Saturday (working title…) This idea comes from Royals Review’s Jacob Milham on Bluesky, and I absolutely love it — thanks, Jacob! If you have any suggestions for advanced stats you’d like to learn more about, please reach out.
I think you got this prediction right. But it will probably be quite a bit different by June.
Nice job sir. Excited to see the final roster