Finding a Role for a Late-Blooming Lefty
Daniel Lynch dominated out of the bullpen in the 2nd half of 2024. What can the Royals expect out of him in 2025?
After a few seasons spent in the wilderness of roster battles and wedding-length mailing lists of non-roster Spring Training invitations, the Royals have mostly reached a point where the core of the 26-man squad is set. That feels good, too — turning the tide from half the active roster made up of “Quad-A” quality players earning spots to a majority of the team seemingly set as we head into February.
It’s the sign of an organization in a much better place than it was just two (heck, even one) offseasons ago. But that doesn’t mean Spring Training will be without competition.
The pitching staff, in particular, includes a long list of locks (Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Lucas Erceg, Carlos Estevez, Hunter Harvey and John Schreiber) combined with pitchers who are sure to make the roster but in to-be-determined roles (Michael Lorenzen, Kris Bubic).
Then you have Alec Marsh and Angel Zerpa, who may need to show *something* to earn roster spots but have the inside track to jobs on Opening Day.
That’s 11 of 13 positions on the staff accounted for before a pitch is thrown. At least three rotation spots are written in ink, and the fourth is earmarked for Lorenzen, we have to assume. Bubic is likely to open the season as the fifth starter, though I do believe that’s less of a certainty than others have posited.
Which brings us to 28-year-old southpaw Daniel Lynch, whose career to this point has been a mixed bag, to put it mildly.
That’s a lot of subpar production from whom many deemed the “high floor” selection among the 2018 draft class. (Let’s be clear, there’s no such thing as “floor” when it comes to pitching prospects.)
Following three seasons of being used exclusively as a starter at the Big League level, Lynch popped as a reliever in 2024, producing by far his best statistical output.
Across 13 appearances out of the bullpen, he worked 29.1 innings to the tune of a 1.84 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with a 24.8% K and 7.3% BB.
But Lynch really cranked it up late in the season. In fact, he was brilliant: After being recalled from Omaha for a third time on Aug. 26, he proceeded to fire 20.2 innings without allowing an earned run the rest of the way, punching out 32% of the 75 hitters he faced.
The underlying metrics weren’t quite as shiny with a 3.58 FIP, .186 BABIP and 91.3% LOB that ranked 7th highest among 315 pitchers who tossed at least 20 relief innings. He stranded all 15 baserunners he allowed in that second-half surge, an unsustainable yet impressive stretch.
In short, he got a little lucky, but that shouldn’t entirely take away from the fact he finally returned some value for the Royals. He might’ve needed to pitch in a different role to discover a way to contribute, but coming out of the bullpen wasn’t his only adjustment.
As the year went on, Lynch slowly relied on his fastball less, upping the usage on both his slider and changeup. By the end of 2024, he was hurling the four-seamer just 34% of the time, a far cry from hovering around 44% from 2021-2023.
Decreasing his reliance on the heater was a logical decision simply looking at the results his primary pitch mix generated last season.
Fastball: .334 wOBA, .476 SLG, 13.3% whiff
Slider: .264 wOBA, .267 SLG, 50.6% whiff
Changeup: .253 wOBA, .306 SLG, 31.9% whiff
Add in the pitch modeling data (a paltry 79 Stuff+ rating on the four-seamer) and it’s clear turning to his secondary offerings (102 Stuff+ for the slider and 94 Stuff+ for the change) was always his clearest path toward production.
Heading into 2025, with just one option remaining, Lynch and the Royals are nearing, if not at, a crossroads. Can he become a trusted contributor or is he simply organizational depth, staring down the barrel of a 2026 DFA?
If Lynch can prove it’s the former and that his 2024 spike wasn’t an aberration, the club has a decision to make this spring with three possibilities.
Compete for a final spot in the bullpen, harnessing the changes he made in 2024 to remake himself as a left-handed reliever.
Burn his final option and stay stretched out as a rotation member at Triple-A, ready to be called upon in whatever capacity needed.
Show his revamped pitch mix can translate as a starter and win a spot in the Big League rotation out of camp.
We’ve seen enough of Lynch to this point that I have a hard time believing No. 3 is really in the cards. Can he provide spot starts in the event of injuries? Sure. Should he be called upon 25+ times to take his turn every fifth day? Almost certainly not, especially with capable starters/swingmen (Lorenzen, Bubic, Marsh) already occupying roster spots.
If his production from August and September was even remotely real, he just might be a weapon KC can call upon in middle relief ahead of a lockdown back end comprised of Erceg, Estevez and Harvey. Perhaps he can (or should) lean even more on his slider, which always showed promise and produced that elite 50.6% whiff in 2024, good for 10th across MLB for its pitch type, per Baseball Savant.
Middle relief isn’t what Royals fans or the front office envisioned for Lynch when he was selected 34th in the 2018 draft. But if he’s found a way to stick in the Majors, it’ll be a huge boost for a bullpen that’s shaping up to be one of the league’s best in 2025.