Forecasting the Royals Lineup on Aug. 1
Laying the framework for an improved offense later this summer
Gaze into your crystal ball. It’s Aug. 1, the Royals are two games back from the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central and Matt Quatraro is filling out his lineup card for an evening tilt with the Toronto Blue Jays.
In recent days and weeks, thanks to shrewd maneuvers from JJ Picollo and highly anticipated assistance from the farm, Kansas City’s offense is humming. The woes of April and May are long forgotten as the club climbs back into contention for the division crown.
As he finishes writing “Kyle Isbel” into the final spot in the order, Quatraro compares the night’s combatants against his March 27 Opening Day roster. It’s laughably different, the manager thinks to himself, and allows a brief chuckle in his cramped visitor’s office in the Great White North.
But how different, you ask? Let’s prognosticate.
For the purpose of this exercise, I’m using Derek Carty’s THE BAT X rest-of-season projections, which are — in my opinion — the gold standard for hitting projections. They’re available at FanGraphs if you’d like to join me in crafting an improved Royals lineup for later this summer.
First, the candidates for the Royals roster on Aug. 1, sorted into groups by their importance to the lineup. Keep in mind, these projections are predicting totals/ratios for the rest of the season as if it started today, NOT in addition to what’s already happened. The following datasets are sorted by plate appearances and are up to date as of Tuesday afternoon, May 27.
The Foundation
Bobby Witt Jr. — 106 G, 442 PA, .302/.358/.545, 21 HR, 30 SB, 148 wRC+
Vinnie Pasquantino — 97 G, 406 PA, .261/.327/.443, 14 HR, 0 SB, 112 wRC+
Jonathan India — 96 G, 401 PA, .259/.353/.405, 9 HR, 8 SB, 115 wRC+
Maikel Garcia — 96 G, 401 PA, .271/.327/.387, 6 HR, 19 SB, 99 wRC+
Salvador Perez — 96 G, 380 PA, .254/.304/.443, 16 HR, 0 SB, 104 wRC+
Let’s start with what isn’t changing. The foundation of Kansas City’s offense, assuming health, is static for 2025. If this team is going to flip a switch in the hitting department, it starts with these five, as it always has.
Keeping in mind the purpose of projections is to forecast a median outcome, I’m highly encouraged by Carty’s system pegging India and Pasquantino for quality finishes to 2025. They’ve each been a bit of a disappointment through two months of the season, though Pasquantino is heating up already with a .383/.420/.532 slash over the last two weeks of action.
Regardless of the changes made in the coming weeks and months in the trade market or otherwise, this quintet holds the keys to KC’s success — or failure — in reaching the postseason.
The Fringe
Kyle Isbel — 84 G, 352 PA, .236/.288/.373, 8 HR, 11 SB, 82 wRC+
Michael Massey — 68 G, 284 PA, .245/.292/.408, 9 HR, 3 SB, 92 wRC+
Drew Waters — 65 G, 271 PA, .237/.299/.360, 4 HR, 8 SB, 83 wRC+
Freddy Fermin — 46 G, 177 PA, .244/.293/.355, 3 HR, 1 SB, 79 wRC+
Mark Canha — 39 G, 162 PA, .250/.343/.366, 3 HR, 2 SB, 102 wRC+
Cavan Biggio — 32 G, 135 PA, .221/.320/.361, 3 HR, 2 SB, 92 wRC+
Dairon Blanco — 32 G, 135 PA, .241/.294/.362, 2 HR, 16 SB, 81 wRC+
MJ Melendez — 26 G, 108 PA, .225/.302/.411, 4 HR, 1 SB, 97 wRC+
There are a lot of names to sort through here. Let’s start with Isbel, who you could make a case for deserving to be a “foundation” piece behind his stellar defensive work and career season (so far) at the plate. But in a perfect world, he’d sit more often against left-handed starting pitchers and there’s some risk that KC could make a deadline move for direct competition in center.
The rest of the list consists of guys who are either already or may become part-time players based on trade acquisitions or promotions from the minors as the season wears on.
Should Picollo make a move for a corner outfielder — inside the organization or out… or both — Waters and Canha are most directly subjected to losing playing time. With Massey’s performance to date, there’s also the chance he sees more innings on the bench as Quatraro turns to India more often at the keystone.
The Future
Jac Caglianone — 49 G, 203 PA, .245/.306/.405, 6 HR, 2 SB, 96 wRC+
John Rave — (Steamer), 22 G, 90 PA, .227/.297/.360, 2 HR, 2 SB, 83 wRC+
Nick Loftin — 19 G, 81 PA, .246/.312/.346, 1 HR, 2 SB, 84 wRC+
Joey Wiemer — 15 G, 63 PA, .215/.287/.355, 2 HR, 1 SB, 78 wRC+
Quick note: Since there’s a ton of fluctuation with minor leaguers and prospects, it’s nearly impossible for projection systems to identify who’s most likely to contribute to the big club. As such, THE BAT X doesn’t have projections for everyone who might get playing time as the season wears on. John Rave is the big one who’s yet see an update in the system (despite his recent callup), so I used Steamer for Rave instead, simply to put numbers next to his name.
You could also include Tyler Gentry, Tyler Tolbert and Cam Devanney on this list, among a few others, but I’m sticking with THE BAT X (and Steamer) and only including players who are projected for more than a handful of games. Additionally, Rave is 27 and Loftin is 26, so labeling them as “future” contributors implies some sort of nonexistent prospect status. The point here is simply to list a few guys with more Major League time ahead of them than behind.
But I’m burying the lede — you came to read about “Lumber Jac” Caglianone, who THE BAT X projects to play roughly half of the team’s remaining games. You may not like the sound of his promotion being closer to two months away than two weeks, but again, these are median projections, not ceiling outcomes.
A 96 wRC+ for the top Royals prospect may not leap off the page, but considering it would make him the third-best hitter in the current iteration of KC’s lineup and… yeah… that sounds pretty helpful right about now.
The Foreigners
Here’s where things get tricky. If Kansas City remains in the hunt leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, Picollo is absolutely making a swing for a lineup addition (or two). For a more detailed list of trade candidates, I highly recommend David Lesky’s Royals Trade Targets newsletter from May 16, but for the purposes of keeping this post under 5,000 words, I’m just going to list my favorites. To further trim the list, I’m only including players on teams that are, as of Tuesday, at least three games back of a Wild Card spot in their respective leagues.
Taylor Ward (OF, Los Angeles Angels) — 102 G, 431 PA, .259/.333/.472, 20 HR, 4 SB, 126 wRC+
Bryan Reynolds (OF, Pittsburgh) — 100 G, 428 PA, .265/.340/.429, 13 HR, 7 SB, 112 wRC+
Luis Robert Jr. (OF, Chicago White Sox) — 100 G, 411 PA, .246/.307/.437, 17 HR, 23 SB, 109 wRC+
Cedric Mullins (OF, Baltimore) — 94 G, 402 PA, .234/.308/.433, 17 HR, 21 SB, 112 wRC+
Adolis Garcia (OF, Texas) — 95 G, 400 PA, .235/.300/.442, 19 HR, 8 SB, 108 wRC+
Notice these are all outfielders; there are viable infield trade candidates who’ll be on the market as well, but the most likely addition for the Royals (in my opinion) is going to be someone who plays on the grass.
There’s been smoke around a Taylor Ward trade since the Clinton administration, but the best timing for a move (from the Angels’ perspective) is going to come this summer. He enters his final year of arbitration in 2026 before becoming a free agent in 2027. Acquiring a year-and-a-half of an outfielder who’s projected to hit 26% better than league average will come with a premium price tag, but he’s my favorite target on the board for his combination of on-base skills and power that so perfectly fits Kansas City’s needs in the middle of the order.
Reynolds and Robert are the longest-term commitments as Reynolds is under contract through 2030 (at around $15 million per season) with a 2031 club option for $20 million, per Spotrac, while Robert’s future includes $20 million club options for both 2026 and 2027.
Because of the flexibility in Robert’s deal, and his pedigree as a former top prospect, I’m probably more in favor of rolling the dice on the White Sox center fielder than most others. Yes, he’s currently batting under the Mendoza line. Yes, he has a CVS receipt of an injury history.
But the Statcast data portends better luck coming his way soon with a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity, 46.3% hard-hit rate and 12.4% barrel rate; that’s partially why the projection systems see a rebound coming in the second half or sooner.
Robert’s 115.8 MPH maximum EV is in the top 4% of MLB. He plays quality defense that may take a leap in a corner spot next to Isbel rather than manning center and walks at a 10.8% clip. He has serious flop lag potential as a player whose own organization — which is in dire need of a reset — may be souring on him enough to move him inside the division.
Mullins is the pure rental of the group, enjoying his best season since 2021 in a contract year ahead of free agency this winter. Garcia, like Ward, is scheduled for his final go-round in arbitration for 2026 but is slogging through his worst campaign as a Big League regular with just a 79 wRC+ to this point.
The Lineups
Starting with a conservative estimate that Kansas City trades for only one of the above candidates (with Ward being the most likely followed by Mullins, by my judgment), here are your Royals lineups from Aug. 1 through the remainder of 2025.
Versus RHP
India, DH
Witt, SS
Pasquantino, 1B
Perez, C
Ward, LF
Garcia, 3B
Caglianone, RF
Massey, 2B
Isbel, CF
Bench: Fermin, Blanco, Loftin, Waters
Versus LHP
India, DH
Witt, SS
Ward, LF
Perez, C
Pasquantino, 1B
Garcia, 3B
Caglianone, RF
Loftin, 2B
Isbel, CF
Bench: Fermin, Blanco, Massey, Waters
It may seem like subtle changes to what we’re watching every night right now, but five of the 13 players on this projected Royals offense weren’t part of the Opening Day 26-man roster (Ward, Caglianone, Waters, Blanco, Loftin). This version means a DFA for Mark Canha and Rave being sent back to Omaha.
Is it enough to track down the Tigers? If we’re acting under THE BAT X assumptions that India and Pasquantino get rolling, Ward/Mullins/insert-your-favorite-trade-target-here pay dividends and Caglianone provides an immediate impact in the middle or bottom of the order, it’s a vastly improved unit that remains highly flexible for Quatraro with India, Garcia, Caglianone and Loftin all capable (to varying degrees) of manning multiple positions.
But I’d love to hear what YOU think. Can the Royals swing more than one meaningful trade? Will Caglianone provide more or less than the baseline projection? Is there a bigger shakeup on the way for the top of the order (moving India down, for example)?
Royals Data Dugout Updates
It’s a Saturday Study Hall week! Is there a stat you’d like to learn more about or simply want to know how the Royals stack up? Reach out with your suggestion for this weekend’s edition or a future post.
I think it’s awfully optimistic them being 2 games back of Tigers on August 1st.
Good column!
I like your Massey/Loftin platoon, as I think Massey is (at this point) in danger of losing his spot on the team if Devanney keeps hitting in Omaha. You have me convinced the Royals will get one of the guys on your list at the deadline.