Kansas City's Productivity Based on Pitch Type
The Royals offensive demise is well-documented. Which pitches give their hitters the most trouble?
Heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the San Francisco Giants, the Royals (27-22) found themselves deadlocked with the Minnesota Twins for the fourth-best record in the American League. By run differential (+1), they were tied for seventh with the Texas Rangers.
Regardless of the offensive malaise, Kansas City is in the thick of a playoff race, just as most everyone expected. A 9-5 record in one-run games was good for the top spot in the Junior Circuit, tied with the Seattle Mariners.
With a bottom-10 offense (or worse) in runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging, wRC+, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, the weight on a now-weakened pitching staff (with Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo on the injured list) is bordering on unsustainable.
It’s been easy to beat up on this beleaguered lineup. Basically every word written or spoken about the Royals offense — not including Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia — is a sour one. What we know is they’ve struggled to produce against both left-handed (67 wRC+, 26th) and right-handed (87 wRC+, 27th) pitching. The home (76 wRC+, 27th) and road (89 wRC+, 21st) splits provide few answers as well.
But what about pitch types? Today, let’s look at which offerings give KC the most trouble and which offer the most hope moving forward, courtesy of data from Baseball Savant/Statcast.
Fastballs (Four-Seam, Sinker, Cutter)
Royals MLB Ranks:
.252 BA (17th)
.276 xBA (13th)
.382 SLG (25th)
.449 xSLG (17th)
90.9 MPH EV (16th)
42.8% Hard-Hit (25th)
5.9% Barrel (19th)
19% Whiff (12th Lowest)
Nothing here gets you excited, by any means, but KC is roughly league-average against fastball types. They’re a little unlucky in the slugging department with solid exit velocity traits and an xSLG that’s almost 70 points higher than the actual slug.
Among individual Royals, you’ll see two usual suspects at the top along with a surprising candidate — Drew Waters — leading the way.
Salvador Perez is the outlier in a negative sense, as FanGraphs reports he’s slashed .296/.332/.550 against four-seamers in his career. His bat speed is roughly in line with the last two campaigns, so it’s not as if he suddenly can’t catch up to the heater. Despite his May struggles, Perez still owns a .550 xSLG against fastballs, so there’s hope this turns around eventually — especially if he’s put the hip issue behind him.
Let’s watch him mash a Joey Wentz fastball into the fountains last May so we can all feel a little better.
Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter, Forkball, Screwball)
Royals MLB Ranks:
.193 BA (29th)
.222 xBA (22nd)
.284 SLG (28th)
.322 xSLG (25th)
86.9 MPH EV (17th)
30.4% Hard-Hit (24th)
2.8% Barrel (26th)
29% Whiff (7th Lowest)
While the fastball numbers are passable, offspeed pitches (most often changeups) are giving the Royals fits. Based on the above, it’s really no surprise to see there’s only one or two guys enjoying a modicum of success against slowballs.
Of course, Bobby Witt Jr. is pacing the club with a .286 average against offspeed offerings, but a .393 slug leaves something to be desired from the star as he’s slashed .295/.329/.502 against changeups in particular, per FanGraphs, in his career.
Curveballs (Curveball, Knuckle-Curve, Slow Curveball)
Royals MLB Ranks:
.268 BA (6th)
.244 xBA (4th)
.378 SLG (13th)
.381 xSLG (8th)
89.1 MPH EV (6th)
45.4% Hard-Hit (1st)
4.1% Barrel (19th)
25.8% Whiff (2nd Lowest)
Now we’re talking. Kansas City is punishing curveball types at a league-high rate; unfortunately, it’s one of the least-used pitch types in the game these days as teams lean into sliders/sweepers as the primary breaking offerings throughout MLB.
Still, beggars can’t be choosers when we’re looking for bright spots in the lineup. The Royals are smashing curveballs with regularity, and the sole caveat here is they’re just not barreling them often enough despite high exit velocities.
Back to the well here with Witt leading the charge behind an insane .429 average and .857 slug. Those numbers are of course outperforming his expected stats (it would be almost impossible not to) but a 90 MPH average EV and 50% hard-hit rate alleviate any concerns that it’s a fluke. Here he is just this week serving a Robbie Ray knuckle-curve into the gap.
As mentioned, curveballs simply aren’t the breaking ball du jour they used to be so we’re only talking about a dozen or so balls in play for each of these six guys, but it’s a bit of a relief anyway to know there is at least one pitch type the team can handle — or at least has handled to this point.
Sliders (Slider, Sweeper, Slurve)
Royals MLB Ranks:
.221 BA (14th)
.244 xBA (7th)
.353 SLG (21st)
.391 xSLG (15th)
88.6 MPH EV (8th)
39% Hard-Hit (8th)
5.4% Barrel (15th)
27.8% Whiff (3rd Lowest)
How about that: Kansas City is pretty solid against the most-often used breakers, too. The Royals have seen the second-lowest percentage of slider types (19.9%) in MLB, but they’re usually able to take advantage with upper-tier batted-ball metrics and a puny whiff rate compared to the rest of the league.
Despite a slow first six or so weeks, Vinnie Pasquantino is hammering sliders, including his massive two-run shot on Monday night that helped the Royals steal a late win over the Giants. It came against none other than Tyler Rogers, one of the game’s truly elite relief aces who’s armed with a 138 FG Stuff+ slider.
Pitchers are smart enough to know the first baseman (whose 4 Outs Above Average are second among qualified fielders at his position, by the way) handles sliders well, hence just an 11.4% usage against him. Still, it’s hard to fault Rogers leaning on his best pitch in a late-and-close situation, but Pasquantino made him pay in a substantial way.
Over the last 14 days, Pasquatch sightings have peaked as he’s slashing .321/.345/.434 during a two-week stretch that’s seen him impact the baseball with a 93.4 MPH EV, 52.3% hard-hit rate and 9.1% barrel rate.
Royals Data Dugout Updates
With another Thursday off for the Boys in Blue, this week’s Royal Scrolls will be live in your inboxes on Friday morning ahead of the holiday weekend. As always, we’ll give out three illustrious Crowning Achievements awards, preview this weekend’s three-game set against the red-hot Twins and discuss the latest Kansas City baseball action.
Saturday Study Hall is on a bye week, but if you’re curious about a particular MLB statistic, please provide your suggestion in the comments for a future edition. I’m always interested to know what stats and metrics readers want to learn about!