Leading Off with Added Life

Why the Royals' inability to add an impact outfielder shouldn't overshadow KC's massive acquisition of Jonathan India

Photo courtesy of AP/Joe Puetz

When the Royals traded for Jonathan India in the early days of the offseason, opinions on the agreement with the Reds were scattered. From disbelief the team would deal homegrown starter Brady Singer to disappointment in India’s surface-level stats, skepticism of the swap wasn’t rampant, but it did exist.

Part of that disappointment lies in the outlandish expectations some baseball fans have for trades in general. (How many times last year did you see someone calling for KC to deal Will Smith, as if there would be takers lined up outside JJ Picollo’s office?)

But some of the skepticism was and is fair. After all, there’s a legitimate argument to be made about which player offers more value: a workhorse starting pitcher, albeit one who’s more league average than world beater, or a bona fide leadoff hitter, albeit one whose counting stats may underwhelm considering his home park?

Each player boasts useful strengths. Each has his warts. In a vacuum, it’s about as classic of a swap you’ll see between Team A in need of rotation help and team B hunting for a hitter to put themselves over the top. (Don’t forget Kansas City also acquired Joey Wiemer as part of the deal, an overlooked player who I believe will make the Opening Day roster as an upgrade over Dairon Blanco.)

For the Royals, however, it’s not simply about getting a “fair” deal.

More importantly, India plugs the most significant hole on the roster.

Jonathan India’s 2024 profile via Baseball Savant

The leadoff spot in 2024 was a sinking ship in desperate need of a life raft. While much is being made of KC’s inability to upgrade the outfield this winter as Spring Training arrives, it’s easy to forget Picollo crossed priority No. 1 off his list just three weeks after the World Series concluded.

New Life in the Leadoff Spot

Yes, the outfield (and spots 5-7 in the batting order) is lackluster. Banking on a new-swing revelation from MJ Melendez or revival from Hunter Renfroe (or Nelson Velazquez) is a risk. It’s an issue the Royals tried to resolve — they were in on Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar and Randal Grichuk — but couldn’t.

Ultimately, though, the lack of outfield production wasn’t the biggest threat to Kansas City’s campaign for a repeat playoff appearance.

That would be the leadoff spot… if it wasn’t for the India trade.

Royals Leadoff Stats, 2024 (MLB Rank)

• 66 wRC+ (30th, by a wide margin)

• .228 AVG (28th)

• .270 OBP (30th)

• .334 SLG (29th)

• .265 wOBA (30th)

• .106 ISO (28th)

It didn’t matter if it was Maikel Garcia, Tommy Pham, Michael Massey or Adam Frazier. The leadoff production was MLB’s worst, which left the Royals franchise cornerstone hanging out to dry in the two-hole.

The Bobby Witt Jr. Effect

As if you didn’t know, one of the best players in baseball, a five-tool superstar, bats second for Kansas City. And he came to the plate with the bases empty far too often.

Witt stepped to the dish with nobody on base a whopping 433 times in 2024, 8th most in baseball. The only players with more bases-empty plate appearances? Leadoff hitters!

Witt astoundingly drove in 109 runs anyway, but he can’t be expected to bat .388 with runners in scoring position again. (Right?)

India, with a career OBP of .352 and 10.5% BB rate, will give the Royals MVP candidate more opportunities to do damage. Sliding that OBP into the team’s 740 plate appearances from the leadoff spot last year would’ve resulted in about 60 more plate appearances for Witt with a runner on in front of him.

It’s not just raw RBI chances, however — it’s also the protection of having a man on base, dissuading pitchers from working around Witt quite as often.

Trickle-Down Impacts

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if KC’s front office is still at least making calls to try and add an outfielder, whether it’s from the free agent pool or trade market. Picollo and co. have shown the restraint to avoid going beyond their comfort zone (whether you agree with that tactic or not) as evidenced by dropping out of the races for Santander and Profar when the market grew past what they were willing to spend.

But if the Royals are done adding, at least until midseason, the India acquisition can directly impact the outfield situation.

If he can competently play LF (or if Massey can, for that matter), it alleviates some of the corner outfield production concerns.

There’s also the Joey Wiemer element of the trade. As David Lesky pointed out in his Inside the Crown mailbag, he might just be the perfect complement to Kyle Isbel in center, whose struggles against left-handed pitching are well-documented (.161/.224/.226 slash and 24 wRC+ in 2024).

In his somewhat brief Major League career, Wiemer’s fared better against southpaws than same-handed pitching, posting a .263/.295/.481 slash and .218 ISO. He’s also got the glove to ease Matt Quatraro’s concerns about keeping Isbel on the bench against lefties, as Wiemer racked up 8 defensive runs saved and a 96th-percentile arm value in 2023, per Baseball Savant.

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It’s fair to be concerned about the Royals outfield. This is by no means a perfect team with a perfect lineup. But enough time has passed since India’s acquisition and a big enough spotlight has been placed on the corner outfield situation that it’s started to feel as if KC did nothing to improve the lineup at all this offseason, which is undeniably untrue.

They fixed by far their biggest offensive issue in 2024 by adding a foundational piece at the top of the lineup, one who gets on base at an elite clip, will give Witt more opportunities and protection in the lineup and may just add a bit of defensive versatility to solve those outfield woes after all.