Loud Contact and Improved Batted-Ball Metrics
5 Royals hitters making noise (literally) in Spring Training
Over the weekend, I had the great pleasure of watching the Cubs thrash the Royals on a beautiful night at Surprise Stadium. OK, so the result wasn’t ideal, but we had the best seats in the house, Cole Ragans pumped 97 with nine whiffs (and strangely poor results), Bobby Witt Jr. pulverized a baseball into the gap and I’m happy to report the ballgame beers were quite cold, even in the Arizona desert.
Enough about my travels, though. It was quiet here and on my X account while I enjoyed a much-needed vacation with great friends (who thumped me on the golf course — the Royals weren’t my only loss of the weekend), but it’s time to get back to work.
Let’s talk about some KC hitters smashing baseballs about as hard as my buddies hit driver off the tee. Through 11 games, the Royals have 19 players with average exit velocities of 90 MPH or better, a number good enough for the top third of the league in 2024 among qualified batters.
A few are the usual suspects — Salvador Perez, Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino — but others are showing year-over-year improvements as they fight for roster spots and/or playing time. I’ve included basic spring stats along with Statcast data for each of the five we’ll look at today as a reminder that Spring Training as a whole is a small sample, let alone just the first week-and-a-half of action.
Repeat: Small sample alert. I’m leery of basically any statistic/data point at this stage, but what fun would it be to ignore all of it entirely?
Maikel Garcia
Spring Stats: 17 PA, .333/.412/.467, 1 XBH, 2 BB, 1 K
Statcast: 14 Batted Ball Events (BBE), 95.9 MPH average exit velocity, 61.5% hard-hit rate, 7.7% Barrel Rate
If you’re not in the weeds of exit velocities and hard-hit rates, it may surprise you to see Garcia’s always hit the ball pretty hard, particularly for his size, with above-average metrics in each of his two full Major League campaigns.
As Jack Johnson noted on X earlier this spring, Garcia made a slight adjustment to his stance and it’s led (so far) to elite contact. He’s now hitting the ball harder than ever without sacrificing his approach, still swinging at just 44% of pitches with a 100% zone contact rate and 3.3% whiff.
We can’t expect Garcia to maintain a 96 MPH average EV (that’s Aaron Judge territory) but a little extra pop would be a huge boost for the bottom of the order, particularly considering KC’s inability to add an impact outfielder this offseason. Perhaps one of Garcia, Michael Massey or Jonathan India can be that lineup-lengthening bat?
The pressure is off Garcia’s shoulders in 2025 with the acquisition of India, meaning he won’t be responsible for hitting leadoff and setting the table for Witt, Pasquantino and Perez. He’s likely to hit somewhere 7-9 most days, and some added oomph would round out his game for a player who was already worth 1.1 fWAR last season thanks to his borderline elite defense and baserunning.
Nick Loftin
Spring Stats: 13 PA, .667/.769/1.000, 3 XBH, 4 BB, 2 K
Statcast: 7 BBE, 94.9 EV, 71.4% HH, 14.3% Barrel
Yes, that’s a number in front of the decimal point in his slugging percentage. Despite the voluminous slash line, Loftin has never been one for loud contact. As he battles this spring for a spot on the Royals bench, the batted-ball metrics have taken a sharp upturn while maintaining his usual patient approach at the plate.
Swinging at an unreal 25.6% of pitches he’s seen, Loftin is doing damage when he does take the bat off his shoulder as he’s been able to pair four walks with three doubles while pacing the team with six hits. (That’s six hits on seven batted balls, mind you.) KC did scratch Loftin from the lineup Sunday with wrist pain, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that.
For now, I’m giving him the edge over Cavan Biggio for the utility role (if they don’t both make the roster) on the Opening Day bench. That’s how I projected it a couple weeks ago and the data gives me no reason to change my mind, in spite of Biggio’s buzz and quality play so far as well.
It’s entirely possible Loftin and Biggio could both make the roster if KC chooses to keep just one bench outfielder, considering Garcia could steal some time in center while India, Massey and Loftin all take some reps in the corners.
Cam Devanney
Spring Stats: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 0 XBH, 3 BB, 0 K
Statcast: 10 BBE, 95.4 EV, 60% HH, 0% Barrel
Devanney’s shot at the Opening Day 26 remains slim as a non-roster invite, unless Loftin’s wrist injury lingers and Biggio’s performance wanes. Still, he’s hitting rockets in Surprise, halving his chase (15.6%) and whiff (15%) rates from last season in Omaha while making more (and better) contact. Considering how hard he’s hitting the baseball, he’s due for reaching base with something more than a single.
The best news for Devanney, though, is he’s taken three free passes and is yet to strike out. With swing rates of 52.4% and 53.9% the last two years in Triple-A, he’s offered at just 37.7% of pitches he’s seen this spring. It’s far, far too early to say, but perhaps he’s altered his approach for the better.
Nick Pratto
Spring Stats: 17 PA, .154/.353/.462, 2 XBH, 3 BB, 4 K
Statcast: 9 BBE, 93.7 EV, 50% HH, 12.5% Barrel
The man simply loves Arizona. After performing at a Cactus League MVP level in 2024, Pratto’s back to damaging baseballs again in Surprise. This time, though, the counting stats aren’t following.
He’s the best example on this list of “process over results” as, while the traditional stats tell one story, his batted-ball data tells another.
The whiffs (30.4%) and strikeouts (23.5%) are still prevalent, to be sure, and those will always be key culprits for Pratto’s struggles. But he’s also carrying an 87.5% zone contact rate (100% prior to Monday), chasing less and punishing baseballs to the tune of a 93.7 MPH average EV and 50% hard-hit rate.
I can’t stress enough we’re only talking about 17 plate appearances and nine batted balls. But for a player whose job rests on his performance this spring (he’s out of options), Pratto is doing everything he can to be attractive to another team, which is helpful to the Royals in the sense they may be able to flip him for an asset rather than outright waiving him when spring comes to a close.
MJ Melendez
Spring Stats: 19 PA, .294/.368/.588, 2 XBH, 2 BB, 6 K
Statcast: 11 BBE, 94.5 EV, 54.5% HH, 9.1% Barrel
Yes, Melendez is seemingly finding his way into every Royals article/blog/newsletter written this spring. Between the swing change, his slow start and recent surge, there’s good reason.
There’s also good reason he’s second on the team in plate appearances through 11 games. The organization needs to know what it has in Melendez — is he simply a strong-side platoon bat, due for the stretches of good and bad that he’s displayed so far in his career, or can the simplified stance unlock a new version of the 26 year old?
Last season was his most aggressive in terms of swing rate, as it climbed from 44.6% in 2022 to 47.8% in 2023 and finally 52.4% in 2024. This spring, it’s back to 44.6% — he’s still chasing 30% of pitches out of the zone, so maybe the swing rate means nothing (repeat: 19 plate appearances), but there’s every chance he’s back to a more patient approach paired with the new aesthetics.
Shrinking an already small sample is a dangerous (stupid) game, but after striking out four times in his first two appearances this spring, he’s punched out just twice in the next four.
With reports circulating Monday the Royals reached out to Adam Duvall’s camp, they’re clearly still searching for outfield help. Melendez is doing everything in his power so far (minus the strikeouts) to prove his place in the outfield hierarchy.