Lucas Erceg Deserves Some Love

Kansas City's silent assassin is being overshadowed by a dominant rotation and revitalized lineup

Photo courtesy of AP/Paul Sancya

On an afternoon when the Royals swatted a club record seven home runs, it’s pretty easy (and deserved) to praise their work at the plate. The first month-plus was a grind for an offense largely reliant on a small handful hitters, three of whom performed well-below expectations. The April results were what you’d expect when Jonathan India, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez struggled out of the gate.

Over the last week, however, the lights have come on. Since April 29 and the start of its six-game road trip to Tampa Bay and Baltimore, Kansas City owns a 133 team wRC+, good for eighth in baseball. Its .290 batting average during that span is fifth in MLB, the .507 slug is sixth and 29 runs scored are 10th-most.

Of course, a lot of that is owed to Sunday’s outburst, but still — there are signs this team won’t have to win every game on the backs of its pitching staff.

One member of that staff, in particular, continues to provide reliability in the most critical circumstances of games, including the series finale against the Orioles: Lucas Erceg.

While the offense was busy leaving the yard and Royals Twitter/X was abuzz with appreciation for some high-scoring baseball (finally), the bullpen door swung open in the eighth inning with the rubber match still hanging in the balance. Erceg emerged, stared down the bottom of the Baltimore lineup with two men aboard and ended the threat.

Ho-hum.

It’s these outings — when Kansas City’s fireman effectively saves the game without earning a “save” — that we’re reminded of his brilliance out of the bullpen. Yet it’s easy to overlook just how important Erceg is to this club, especially over the first 35 games of the season when every opposing run felt like it counted triple as the Royals lineup scratched and clawed to put 2-3 of its own on the board.

The situation will be forgotten (if it hasn’t been already), but Erceg entered Sunday’s matinee at a crucial juncture. After an effective seventh inning, Angel Zerpa (who’s looked better himself over the last few weeks) allowed a leadoff double to former Royal Ryan O’Hearn and a run-scoring single to Ryan Mountcastle to cut the KC lead to 9-6. Following Jackson Holliday’s third hit of the afternoon to put runners at first and second with the tying run at the dish, Matt Quatraro called the fire department.

First up for Erceg: top Orioles power-hitting prospect Coby Mayo. The Royals right-hander sought chase from the youngster with three sliders off the plate but came back with a 99.4 MPH heater (his second-fastest pitch of 2025 after throwing his fastest one day earlier) to earn an infield popup.

Next, another member of the O’s seemingly unending youth movement in lefty Heston Kjerstad. Erceg made quick work of the former Razorback with a biting slider on the outer half that Kjerstad pounded into the ground to Pasquantino for the second out.

Finally, the resurgent Ramon Laureano. Erceg rifled a 97.9 MPH sinker on the inner edge and went back to the slider spinning away from the Orioles right-hander. Laureano pounded the pitch toward center field at 104.2 MPH with a .510 xBA, but Kyle Isbel was there and the inning was over.

Just as quickly as Baltimore threatened to erase a four-run deficit (that felt like one or two with the ball consistently flying out of Camden Yards), Erceg was there to do what he does best, masterfully eliminating both righties and lefties with a nasty four-pitch mix.

Through 14.1 innings in his age-30 season, Erceg’s reaching a new stage of sheer dominance with a puny 0.63 ERA — that’s one earned run total in 2025 — 0.56 WHIP and 2.10 FIP. The strikeouts (20.4%) aren’t quite where they’ve been the last two campaigns, but a 2% walk rate — again, that’s merely one walk to 49 batters faced — helps make up for a lack of punchouts.

He’s already generated 0.5 fWAR, ninth among relievers in MLB, and has thrown an inning or two less than everyone ahead of him on the leaderboard.

Via TJ Stats

Erceg’s power arsenal continues to make the grade with tjStuff+ marks of 100 or better across the board, including the plus sinker and one of the filthiest changeups in the sport. A month into the season, his velocity is down some from 2024 with the four-seamer/sinker sitting 97-98 rather than 98-99, but that’s still plenty of juice to juxtapose with the low-90s slowball (if we can call it that) and harsh mid-80s slider.

That said, as mentioned above, he’s thrown his two hardest pitches of 2025 in his last two outings against Baltimore. Saturday, Erceg touched 99.5 MPH with his fastball before Sunday’s 99.4 on Mayo’s hands.

If the right-hander is concerned about his velo at all, he isn’t showing it. Erceg’s actually using the four-seamer and sinker more through 16 outings than he did in 2024, ramping the fastball up to 36.2% (including nearly half the time to lefties) and the sinker up to 24.2% (rarely against lefties but nearly half the time to right-handers).

With an insane 72.2% chase rate on his sinker, the strikeouts are going to come. Amazingly, hitters are whiffing at just 5.9% of them despite the massive chase numbers after swinging and missing at 21% of Erceg’s two-seamers a year ago.

Similarly, the changeup is returning 15.4% whiffs, down from 37.5% in 2024. That may stem from location as Erceg is spotting the pitch at the knees rather than belt high and off the plate as he did last year, a more tantalizing area for lefties to lick their chops and come up empty. It runs a bit counter to baseball wisdom but for Erceg, the changeup may blend better with his running four-seamer and sinker that are often spotted up when it’s similarly higher in the zone; otherwise hitters can see “down” and recognize it must not be a fastball variant.

Erceg's Changeup Locations (2025 L vs. 2024 R)

And yet, in spite of the underlying data coming up a tad short of Erceg’s inaugural season in blue, he remains Quatraro’s easy button when it’s time to escape a jam.

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On Deck

Kansas City returns for a four-game home set against the White Sox followed by a three-game weekend series against Boston.

6:40 p.m. Monday: Cole Ragans vs. RHP Shane Smith (2.23 ERA)

6:40 p.m. Tuesday: Seth Lugo vs. RHP Sean Burke (4.91 ERA)

6:40 p.m. Wednesday: Michael Wacha vs. RHP Jonathan Cannon (4.26 ERA)

1:10 p.m. Thursday (School Day at the K): Kris Bubic vs. RHP Davis Martin (3.52 ERA)

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I-70 Series

Finally, a quick show of appreciation for everyone following Royals Data Dugout. I have a pair of tickets for the Sunday, May 18 game against the Cardinals at Kauffman Stadium that I won’t be able to use.

Instead of trying to sell them, I’d like to give them to you!

I’m announcing the giveaway on X tonight (Monday, May 5) — be on the lookout for instructions, but know you need to follow on X and subscribe to this newsletter to be eligible to win.