Magic Mic(hael)
Veteran right-hander Michael Lorenzen stabilized KC's rotation last summer — but with worrying peripherals. Can he wave his wand and outperform his underlying metrics again in 2025?
After being traded from Texas to Kansas City on July 29, 2024, Michael Lorenzen provided a huge stabilizing force at the back end of the Royals rotation. Alec Marsh was in the midst of a summer swoon, posting ERAs of 5.68 in June and 6.86 in July across 51 innings, eventually getting optioned to Triple-A on July 31.
For a team largely reliant on its starting rotation to protect a bullpen that had yet to hit its stride, KC was in need of a veteran who could eat innings with solid run prevention.
Lorenzen did just that. In 28.2 innings across seven appearances (six starts), the 32-year-old posted a 1.57 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. He suffered a hamstring strain in late August, hitting the 15-day injured list on Aug. 28, but to that point, he’d given Kansas City a much-needed boost from its fifth spot in the rotation.
He officially inked a new 1-year deal with KC on Jan. 8 — and has already been penciled in as the fourth starter after the team dealt away rotation stalwart Brady Singer for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer in the offseason.
While it’s borderline impossible for Lorenzen to repeat the run prevention marks he tallied last summer, he will be relied upon to take his turn every fifth day behind Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.
As has been widely discussed — including at RoyalsReporter.com and FanGraphs — the peripherals showed quite a bit of good fortune for the right-hander while in Royal blue. He allowed a BABIP of just .213 with a 3.90 FIP and 4.86 SIERA. His 89% LOB would’ve easily been the highest in the league among qualified starters had he maintained it for a full campaign, and his season-long barrel rate allowed (8%) and hard-hit rate allowed (39.4%) both represented sub-league average marks.
So what does the Royals front office see in Lorenzen for 2025? What can (and should) he do to pay off Kansas City’s investment?
Continue Throwing First-Pitch Strikes
The good news is, once Lorenzen arrived in Kansas City, his work with pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove paid dividends. One of the biggest improvements he made (along with adjusting his arsenal, which we’ll get to later) was his ability to get ahead with strike one.
Through July 29 and his 101.2 innings with the Rangers, Lorenzen ranked 71st among 82 pitchers (minimum 100 innings) in first-pitch strike rate at 59.7%. Following the trade, that number leapt to 65.1% in his limited Royals starts — good for 57th among 163 starters who threw at least 20 innings from July 29 through the end of the regular season.
With an average (at best) four-seam fastball and a 6th-percentile chase rate, he’s not the type who can afford to regularly fall behind in the count.
Display Better Fastball Command
Speaking of that heater… there’s not much to write home about. It sits 93.8 MPH, about a tick below average in today’s MLB. Its got just enough tail to avoid barrels (.155 AVG and .309 SLG allowed last season) but isn’t an offering he can lean on for whiffs. Among 115 starters with 100+ innings registered last year, the 84 Stuff+ on his four-seamer ranked T-88th.
If we lump in his 99 Stuff+ sinker at 93.6 MPH, we’re looking at two run-of-the-mill fastballs that should be used as table-setters for better offspeed offerings, not as primary pitches. With swinging-strike rates of 6.5% on the four-seamer and 2%(!!!) on the sinker, it’s imperative that he keeps these pitches on the corners to avoid damage.
Unfortunately…
Yeah, not great. There’s a reason hitters feasted on the sinker with a .441 SLG. He’ll have to hone in his command in a major way to keep hitters from sitting dead-red.
Threaten the Zone with Secondaries
Along with starting counts 1-0 too often before jumping to Kansas City, another culprit for laying so many fastballs over the heart of the plate was Lorenzen’s inability to throw offspeed strikes.
According to FanGraphs, he found the zone just 41.7% of the time with his slider/sweeper, 39.6% with his curveball and 38.4% with the changeup. I already mentioned the minuscule chase rate — just 23.9% across his arsenal — that shows he has a difficult time luring hitters outside of the strike zone.
He’s a bit of a nibbler, partly out of necessity due to a lack of “stuff.” But if he wants to avoid consistently sitting 93 on a tee for hitters, those secondary offerings will have to tempt opponents a bit more often. That starts by keeping them in the zone with more frequency.
Lean Into the Pitch That’s ‘Sweeping’ MLB
Ah yes, the horizontal breaker that’s en vogue across the league. Kansas City’s pitching development staff doesn’t lean quite as heavily into the sweeper as other organizations, but it did find a worthy pupil in Lorenzen. Following the trade, he all but ditched his slider in favor of a bigger-breaking sweeper — with big results.
Per FanGraphs, he generated just a 24% whiff rate with the slider in Texas. But the sweeper? It earned a 41% whiff, giving him a second weapon (along with the 37.3% whiff changeup) that could miss bats.
Up to this point in his career, he’s been a pretty splits-neutral arm against righties (.309 wOBA) and lefties (.312 wOBA). Things were a bit different in 2024 with a .150/.271/.262 slash allowed against left-handers and .272/.347/.465 line against same-handed opponents.
The sweeper can give him a neutralizer against those right-handed batters who largely sat on fastballs, knowing he was reluctant to turn to his changeup (10% usage) and curveball (6%) against them in 2024.
The Royals made a pretty meager investment in Lorenzen for 2025, but it doesn’t make him any less important for a staff that traded away one of its rotation mainstays in the offseason. I’ll admit I’m a bit skeptical he can provide much more than 130-140 innings of 4.50-ERA production as a contact-oriented veteran, but he does pitch in the right park with a quality group of gloves behind him.
And as outlined here, there is a path toward prettier peripherals with a sturdier approach, along with a clear willingness to make adjustments under the tutelage of the Royals pitching development team. We’ll have to wait and see if he can turn that effort into results.