RISP Regression

KC's clutch 2024 hitting was due for a downturn. Assessing the Royals' extreme struggles in scoring opportunities

Photo courtesy of AP/Charlie Riedel

“Good enough” is all you need from an offense with a pitching staff as robust as Kansas City’s has been for the last year and change.

In 2024, the Royals rolled out a substandard lineup. As a team, they slashed .248/306/.403 for a 96 wRC+ on the season. But in prime scoring situations, with runners on second and/or third, Kansas City was lethal.

Pressure made diamonds in RISP opportunities a season ago, with the team upping that slash to .282/.348/.446 for a 116 wRC+, good for eighth in baseball. The second, third and fourth spots in the order (primarily Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez) finished the year second in MLB just behind the Yankees with a collective 162 wRC+, featuring a .348/.411/.579 slash, with men 90-180 feet from the plate.

Those lofty results were due for some regression. Everyone knew it. In part, that’s why the front office didn’t rest this winter, acquiring Jonathan India early in the offseason and chasing its tail for an outfield upgrade — Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, Randal Grichuk — with nothing to show for the effort.

And regress they have. So far in 2025, the Royals have gone from second-best with runners in scoring position to second-worst. They’re slashing .223/.285/.312 for a 61 wRC+, a brutal mark that simply can’t sustain if they’d like to give the starting rotation a modicum of support.

So where does the truth lie? Was an entire season of data in 2024 a giant fluke or is the first six weeks of 2025 a blip?

The answer, as seemingly always, is probably somewhere in the middle. This team ran hot in those situations a year ago, to be sure. At the same time, it’s unlikely the Royals are destined for failure in the game’s most important moments all of a sudden.

While the offense as a whole, as you know, has been underwhelming (.242/.300/.359 slash), the drop from an 83 wRC+ to the aforementioned 61 mark just because there are ducks on the pond is pretty drastic.

One positive sign is, despite the inefficiency, the Royals are setting themselves up with ample opportunities. They’re 12th in MLB in total plate appearances (417) with runners in scoring position. Athleticism and aggression on the basepaths will always help create those chances, even when the lineup is in a quiet stretch.

But why are these regular opportunities not returning results?

The Royals are Pressing

It’s all too common of a cliche when a team is failing to put runs on the board, but the data supports the notion that Kansas City may be “trying too hard” when chances present themselves.

We know it’s an aggressive lineup in general with top-10 swing (47.9%) and O-Swing (29%) rates in all situations. That likely isn’t going to change as it’s at the heart of both what the organization values (putting the ball in play) and the players’ individual DNAs outside of India, Maikel Garcia and Cavan Biggio.

The “swing first, ask questions later” tendency is ratcheted up in RBI situations, however, and possibly to KC’s detriment. Others have pointed to Vinnie Pasquantino’s desire to hunt the RBI with a man on third and less than two outs, upping his swing rate to seek a sac fly or better. That mentality looks like it’s extending to the rest of the lineup, too, but not everyone on this roster has the luxury of Pasquantino’s quick hands, contact ability and raw power to lift the baseball into the deep recesses of the outfield to get the run home.

With runners in scoring position, the Royals’ swing and chase rates both jump multiple percentage points to 52.2% and 32.1%, respectively, according to Statcast. That desire to swing more often and get the ball in play ASAP may be holding them back.

The Royals are Lifting the Ball… But Not Deep Enough

Man on third and less than two outs? A fly ball is a fine alternative to a clutch hit. Just ask Vinnie.

But not when it’s on the infield.

Kansas City is sixth in infield fly ball rate in 2025 at 11.5%, per FanGraphs. With runners in scoring position, that number leaps to 15.4%, second in baseball. There’s a clear effort to get the ball in the air (good!) but hitters are getting underneath it and failing to reach the grass (bad!).

The question: Is that a fluky result that’s due to come back to earth? Interestingly, KC was also third in that metric (13%) in 2024 with men in scoring position, so it’s not as if that’s some all-encompassing reason for their RISP regression.

The Royals are also fifth in MLB in soft contact rate (19.6%) with RISP, according to FanGraphs, with the 10th-highest rate (17.3%) in all situations. Again, those numbers are both roughly in line with what they did in 2024, so we’re still failing to find The Answer™ to their swift RISP downturn in 2025.

The Royals are Unlucky

Ah, just the conclusion you wanted to see! (Maybe?)

While Kansas City’s average exit velocity (89.4 MPH > 88.2 MPH) and hard-hit rate (39.7% > 39.2%) are both down slightly from their season averages with runners in scoring position, neither metric is alarmingly different.

However, the Royals BABIP is down from .285 on the season (basically league average) to .258 (fifth-lowest) when scoring opportunities knock. Is that partially due to their pressing and chasing worse pitches to hit? Possibly.

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I’ll admit, I was hoping to find a clearer picture as to why Kansas City’s buried in the basement of the RISP leaderboards. I thought I might discover a spiked strikeout rate, the bottom falling out on KC’s batted-ball data or a more intriguing datapoint.

It might be as simple as over-aggression and a touch of bad luck, but it feels lazy to draw such a broad conclusion to a major issue that’s holding the offense back. It could just be too early to know.

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Up Next

Kansas City takes a brief road trip to Houston before (finally) enjoying an off day Thursday and hosting the I-70 Series this weekend against St. Louis. The Astros currently list Wednesday’s starter as TBD but it lines up for RHP Hunter Brown (1.48 ERA).

7:10 p.m. Monday: Michael Wacha (2.98 ERA) vs. RHP Ryan Gusto (2.93 ERA)

7:10 p.m. Tuesday: Kris Bubic (1.69 ERA) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (3.94 ERA)

7:10 p.m. Wednesday: Michael Lorenzen (3.57 ERA) vs. TBD

Be on the lookout for this week’s edition of Royal Scrolls on Friday morning ahead of the Cardinals series.