Royal Scrolls: Bubic Shoves, Maikel Slugs, MJ Stumbles and an Orioles Preview

Crowning achievements and numerical nuggets from the first week of the season

Photo courtesy of AP/Jeffrey Phelps

Royal Scrolls is a recap of the week so far and a preview of the weekend ahead, along with news, nuggets and notes.

One week down, a lot more to go.

The Royals have played about 4% of their season. They’re 2-4 and lost back-to-back series to begin their charge toward consecutive playoff berths.

Deep breath.

As always in a long MLB season, there’s been some good, some bad and some downright ugly. Two extra-inning losses can make it feel like you’re taking on water when, in reality, this team could easily be 4-2.

When Kansas City couldn’t get its Manfred Man home in the 11th inning against the Brewers on Wednesday, the game was all but lost. It was a waste of ace Cole Ragans’ 10 strikeouts and Lucas Erceg’s Houdini act to escape Angel Zerpa’s jam in the seventh.

As always, it’s just one game of 162, but that three-game set in Milwaukee felt like the Royals should’ve came away with more than one lousy (though rousing) victory.

Let’s look at who’s stood out through the first week of action and turn our focus to this weekend’s playoff rematch against the Baltimore Orioles with all five AL Central teams tied at 2-4.

Crowning Achievements

Maikel Garcia Has Liftoff

On Monday, Garcia walloped a middle-middle four-seam fastball from Elvin Rodriguez to the batter’s eye in Milwaukee. At 428 feet and 108.8 MPH off the bat, it was a true moonshot — both the farthest he’s hit a baseball in his Big League career and his second-best exit velocity.

After starting Opening Day on the bench (when he collected a hit and a strikeout by pinch hitting for MJ Melendez), Garcia has been on a tear, racking up a .353/.421/.824 slash line with a pair of bombs, three runs and three RBI. He’s forced his way into the everyday lineup, in my opinion (despite sitting Thursday), as a key piece to this Royals team with his defensive prowess and speed. An improved ability to do damage at the plate would help him ascend from versatile to downright valuable.

Kris Bubic Crushes the Brewers

To say I’m high on Bubic in 2025 is an understatement, and Monday’s outing in Milwaukee did nothing to quell my expectations. The left-hander was in control his entire six innings on the bump, piling up eight strikeouts on 15 whiffs, both marks just shy of career highs.

While I suspect Bubic will vary his pitch mix a bit more in future outings, his 92.5 MPH four-seam fastball was plan A, B and C against the Brew Crew. He used it on 51% of his 95 pitches and, thanks to its ability to carry through the zone, generated 11 whiffs.

Following the Brady Singer swap for Jonathan India — who’s been everything the Royals have asked for so far — there were questions about how KC would fill its rotation after Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. I’m not 100% sure Bubic can surpass, say, 140 innings after returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024, but if he can give manager Matt Quatraro 4-5 months of a sub-4.00 ERA in the rotation before being used as a late-game weapon, he’ll be one of the most important members of the club.

The Bullpen’s Back End is as Advertised

Through the season’s first week, there’s been a pretty clear delineation between the Royals most trusted bullpen members and … the other guys. Kansas City’s bullpen was 19th in MLB through Tuesday’s games with a 4.58 ERA, but closer Carlos Estevez, fireman Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey are yet to allow an earned run through 8.1 innings. (Though Milwaukee’s 10th inning ghost runner did come home on Estevez’s watch, that counts as an unearned run.) Collectively, they’ve struck out eight hitters, walked three and allowed two hits.

While Angel Zerpa, John Schreiber, Sam Long and Chris Stratton have struggled, the bullies at the back are showing that when KC gets a lead to the late innings, it should expect to come away with a win.

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Weekend Preview

Next on the docket is a seven-game homestand beginning Friday against the Orioles before KC gets its first crack at Minnesota on Monday-Thursday next week.

Baltimore is 3-3 after Wednesday’s loss to Boston, and while the Royals will enjoy a day off Thursday, the O’s will wrap up their three-game set with the Red Sox before flying to Kansas City.

Pitching Probables

Friday: Seth Lugo vs. RHP Dean Kremer

Kremer throws a five-pitch mix, but he’s a fastball-heavy righty who relies on his four-seamer and cutter for more than half his offerings, which both grade well in Stuff+ systems. If it holds from his first start of the season, when he allowed five runs across 5.1 innings to the Blue Jays, he’s added a tick of velocity in 2025.

In three career outings against KC, he’s tossed 16 innings with a 3.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP — but those numbers come with a 5.46 FIP, so I expect the Royals to find some success in the series opener.

Saturday: Michael Wacha vs. RHP Tomoyuki Sugano

Sugano jumped from Nippon Professional Baseball, Japan’s top league, to MLB this offseason at 35 years old. He’s control over stuff, as evidenced by walk rates under 6% every year of his NPB career. He did exit his one start this season against Toronto early with cramps, so it’s something to keep an eye on Saturday — if he makes his scheduled start.

He’s another heater-reliant righty, and one whose fastball variations aren’t overly daunting. The 93.5 MPH four-seamer grades well with a 109 tjStuff+ thanks to its above-average ride, so KC will need to be able to handle it up in the zone while spitting on the splitter.

Sunday: Kris Bubic vs. LHP Cade Povich

Povich debuted in 2024 for Baltimore, making 16 starts in his first go at the Big Leagues with a 5.20 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 4.79 FIP. He’s been a strikeout artist throughout his minor league stops with strikeout rates hovering around 30% combined with acceptable walk rates. The young southpaw punched out eight Red Sox in his first start of 2025 but with three earned runs across just 4.1 innings.

His arsenal grades out as average across the board with a low-90s heater, looping curveball and sweeper comprising about 80% of his offerings.

Orioles Notes

• All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson could return as soon as Thursday against the Red Sox and should be ready to roll in Kansas City. His right intercostal strain never appeared overly serious, but the team wanted to be cautious and start his season on the injured list.

• Just as Henderson finds himself on the mend, another young Orioles slugger goes down. Left-handed hitting outfielder Colton Cowser fractured his left thumb while attempting to slide head-first into first base. (Kids, don’t do that.) He’ll miss “at least” 6-8 weeks.

• Baltimore is third in MLB with a .517 team slug. They’re second with a 15% barrel rate, showing an ability to square up the baseball with optimal launch angles.

• The Orioles employ a good approach at the plate, too, with the seventh-lowest O-Swing rate and ninth-highest Z-swing rate in MLB, per Statcast.

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Data Mining

Unearthing always fun, sometimes meaningful Royals stats.

• If there was one member of the Royals who needed to get off to a fast start, it was MJ Melendez. To this point, his struggles at the dish have continued, and the leash gets shorter each passing game. He’s slashing .077/.200/.077 with six strikeouts. The 46.7% whiff rate is untenable. I’ve operated with the assumption Melendez has somewhere between 4-6 weeks to show the offseason tweaks will make an impact before Kansas City turns to its minor league ranks for a possible replacement, whether that’s Tyler Gentry, Gavin Cross or Joey Wiemer.

• Cole Ragans racked up double-digit punchouts against the Brewers Wednesday, finishing with 10 Ks in five innings of work while allowing just one run. His 35% CSW and 50% contact rate point toward an excellent outing, but what’s most impressive was he did it pretty much with one pitch. Ragans utilized his four-seam fastball on 58% of his 97 pitches, the highest usage in his time in KC. It appeared fairly early like he didn’t have a great feel for his secondary weapons, including allowing a 102 MPH bomb to Jackson Chourio on a middle-middle changeup in the first frame — the only run tallied against him on the day. Maybe this is the glass-half-full take, but to me, that’s what makes him a bona fide ace — tallying strikeout after strikeout without needing faith in his full arsenal. These locations are perhaps why he chose to ride it out with the gas:

  

• In his first week as a Royal, Jonathan India is proving to be everything Kansas City expected. The leadoff man is slashing .320/.393/.400, and despite being pelted in the jaw by a 99 MPH Emmanuel Clase fastball, continued setting the table in Milwaukee. Now he just needs Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez to get hot alongside him.

• Daniel Lynch is excelling in his bridge role between the starters and that vaunted back end of the bullpen, tossing five scoreless innings with three strikeouts, one hit and one free pass. The stuff numbers don’t pop, but he’s filling up the zone while generating plenty of chase.

  

  Data through Tuesday’s action.

• After finishing fourth in fly-ball rate last season, Royals hitters continue to lift the baseball well, sitting in second behind the New York Torpedo Bats at 50.4% through Tuesday.

• Unfortunately, those lifted baseballs aren’t being hit hard. Kansas City’s hitters are dead last in hard-hit rate at 32.6% and 24th in exit velocity with an 88 MPH average.

• On the flip side, Royals pitchers are limiting hard contact, too, allowing an equivalent 88 MPH average EV and 33.6% hard-hit rate. Those marks rank 25th and 28th across the league, respectively.

• However, the arms aren’t coaxing enough chase or missing bats. KC pitchers are dead last with a 21.6% O-Swing and are allowing an 80.3% contact rate, second-worst in MLB.

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Let me know if you enjoyed the format of this first run of Royal Scrolls, and be on the lookout for the second volume of the Saturday Study Hall series this weekend!