Royal Scrolls: Predictions for the 2nd Half

7 mild, medium and hot prognostications for KC's stretch run

Photo courtesy of AP/Charlie Riedel

Two full, entire days off without baseball feels like a lifetime after the grind of the first half. Kansas City, at 47-50, sits third in the American League Central and eighth in the Wild Card standings.

The Royals trail Detroit by 12 games in the division but remain just a half game back from Minnesota for second. (They’re ahead of Cleveland only by win percentage.)

It’s clear their postseason chances rest on a Wild Card berth, chasing the Yankees, Red Sox and Mariners currently holding tickets to the dance. Tampa Bay, Texas, Los Angeles (A) and Minnesota are within striking distance as a cluster of clubs wrestle for position as we traverse deeper into the summer.

Nearly everything that can be said about KC’s first half has been written up, talked about and discussed ad nauseam, especially entering an All-Star break that saw four Royals (Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Kris Bubic and Carlos Estevez) lavish in baseball’s limelight in Atlanta.

This piece, published every Thursday/Friday, typically highlights premium performances from the past few days in the form of Crowning Achievements and previews the weekend’s opponent, but we’re charting a new path this time around.

Instead of rehashing the pitching staff’s dominance, an eternally slumping lineup, shaky baserunning (at times) and Jac Caglianone’s early struggles, let’s peer into the crystal ball and predict what the second half of the season may bring.

Mild

Kansas City Misses the Postseason

Let’s begin at the end with the most important question: Can KC make a run and surpass a handful of AL rivals for a Wild Card spot?

The Royals certainly *could* get there but they’ve stacked the deck against themselves with a sluggish spring offensively, though the lineup has warmed up with the weather in recent weeks. According to FanGraphs, they have a 12% chance to crack October with a projected final record of 79-82 (rounding down from 79.4 wins).

Importantly, that projection doesn’t factor in potential upgrades for locked-in contenders and any deals the Royals may make (which we’ll get to) that weaken the 2025 roster as focus shifts to 2026 and beyond.

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