Royal Scrolls: The Approach Is Not the Problem

Analyzing KC's first-pitch swing rates and results; preparing for LA at the K

Photo courtesy of AP/Charlie Riedel

Royal Scrolls is a recap of the week so far and a preview of the weekend ahead, along with news, nuggets and notes.

Do we have to talk about the games? This sacred corner of the internet is typically reserved for recapping the week we’ve seen and the weekend to come, but after mustering one run against the Rays in three games, let’s get straight to the diagnosis instead of dancing around the symptoms.

The Royals are riding a 10-game home losing streak with three left in June (against MLB’s Death Star Dodgers) to avoid going winless at home across an entire month. From the coaching staff and offensive approach to individual hitters, weather, park factors, aliens, tariffs(?) and who-knows-what-else, blame is being passed around faster than Kansas City can go three-up, three-down in the bottom half of an inning.

One excuse/explanation/cause is bubbling to the surface more than others.

Much has been made in recent days of the Royals approach on the first pitch of at-bats. Heading into Thursday’s action, Kansas City’s 29.2% first-pitch swing rate ranked fourth-lowest in MLB, ahead of only the Giants, Reds and Brewers. This runs counter to the notion they’re swinging too often at the first pitch, in spite of small-sample results from the Rays series.

On those first pitches, they’re hitting .310 with a .317 xBA while slugging .514 with a .530 xSLG — all bottom-10 marks across the league.

But is there more to discover the further we delve into the specific pitches they’re swinging at early in counts?

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