Royals Roster Projection 2.0

Taking a crack at Kansas City's 26-man Opening Day roster with 2 weeks to go

Photo courtesy of Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP

I’m calling this Roster Projection 2.0, which might be confusing, considering I never published a Roster Projection 1.0. My original prediction for the Opening Day 26 wasn’t in traditional form, but I did send out a pair of newsletters detailing the position battles on the hitting side and for the pitching staff.

If you read between the lines on those two posts, you could see who I thought would make the back end of the roster, which is really what we’re talking about with these projections — you don’t need me to tell you Bobby Witt Jr. and Cole Ragans will toe the chalk at 3 p.m. on March 27 at Kauffman Stadium.

So, Roster Projection 2.0 it is, this time in a more standard format.

We’re at right about the midway point of Spring Training. We’ve seen some players excel, others struggle. Some of those performances matter, some don’t.

Let’s get into it, armed with about two weeks of spring insights with nearly two weeks before Opening Day.

Starting Pitchers (5)

1. Cole Ragans

2. Seth Lugo

3. Michael Wacha

4. Michael Lorenzen

5. Kris Bubic

No changes here, despite Ragans and Lugo owning ERAs north of 8.00 and Wacha’s registering nearly double that. There’s just no reason, with those veterans, to panic. In Ragans’ case, the stuff has been perfectly electric, just like we expect. Lugo is the classic crafty arm who might just need a little extra time to hone in the command of his, um, 12 different pitches? Same with Wacha — the stuff is grading similar to 2024, with his curveball and sinker in fact showing slight tjStuff+ gains year-over-year. Lorenzen’s done most of his work on backfields and in B games, so we haven’t gotten the same looks at him, but the Royals all but tabbed him as the fourth starter before exhibition games started, so there’s no point really in hashing that one out.

It’s the fifth spot where questions and competition remain. Even though Daniel Lynch has been the best pitcher in camp, at least in game action, I’m still giving the nod to Bubic here. If we go beyond the box score, he’s displayed the superior arsenal (101 tjStuff+ to Lynch’s 93) and just had the one blowup spot against Seattle when he reached a one-inning pitch limit and was lifted for Anthony Simonelli who promptly gave up a bases-clearing double, charging three runs to Bubic’s account. Between the pair of lefties, it’s Bubic who owns the higher ceiling.

Bullpen (8)

Things get much trickier here with injuries, minor league options and optimal roles at play. I’ve listed the below in order of confidence/trustworthiness, not necessarily role, but I’ll note quickly here I expect Carlos Estevez to get the bulk of the save opportunities with Erceg operating as a fireman — there’ll be nights Erceg pitches the sixth, nights he comes out in the eighth and nights he gives Estevez a breather with the game on the line.

1. Lucas Erceg

2. Carlos Estevez

3. Hunter Harvey

4. John Schreiber

5. Angel Zerpa

6. Sam Long

7. Daniel Lynch

8. Jonathan Bowlan

Two changes for me in the bullpen from the last time around. Lynch and Bowlan, two of the most impressive arms this spring, replace Chris Stratton and Carlos Hernandez.

There are multiple factors at play here. Neither Stratton nor Hernandez can be optioned, which led me to pencil them in at the start of spring for inventory purposes. Teams simply don’t like to let arms walk without reason… but now we have reason.

Hernandez simply has not looked good in his seven innings on the bump in live action. He owns a 7.71 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 20.7% K and 10.3% BB. He’s thrown a first-pitch strike to just 38% of hitters faced. He’s allowed an 82.5% contact rate, up nearly 7% from his career average, which is evidence of a diminished repertoire to this point in March. More specifically, his entire arsenal is down about 2 MPH from 2024, most importantly the four-seam fastball, which sits at 96.3 MPH. With subpar command and secondaries, he’s a pitcher who relies on a lively heater — previously closer to 98 MPH — that carries the rest of his arsenal. Without that weapon, he’s not deserving of a spot over pitchers who throw more strikes, and I expect him, as of now, to be DFA’d.

Stratton is in the same sinking boat, having struggled mightily in 2024 before picking up his $4.5 million player option. Because of that investment, I’m having a little more trouble with the 34 year old. Part of me still wants to plug him in for Opening Day, give him a month and see what he shows in the regular season. But with the performances of Lynch and Bowlan the last couple weeks, there are simply better options available to the Royals right now, who can’t afford to give games away in April to hope to make good on their investment.

I wrote extensively about Lynch in the most recent notebook entry, so check that out if you want to read more about his work in Surprise. It’s Bowlan, though, who’s forced his way into the conversation, showing an enhanced pitch mix since it was announced he’d be fully transitioned to relief work. His arsenal grades average or better across the board, including a four-seamer that’s up almost 2 MPH with improved induced vertical break (iVB) and a nasty slider that’s showing more depth than 2024 and carrying an 80% whiff this spring.

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Catchers (2)

• Salvador Perez

• Freddy Fermin

Easiest spot on the board. No notes, as the kids say.

Infielders (6)

• Bobby Witt Jr.

• Vinnie Pasquantino

• Jonathan India

• Maikel Garcia

• Michael Massey

• Nick Loftin

Here’s where it becomes a struggle. There are essentially eight roster locks among non-catching position players, including Witt, Pasquantino, India, Garcia and Massey among infielders. The Royals have tested the latter three in the outfield this spring, and while we have nothing definitive to measure their success, I’m most confident in Massey being able to play left field and Garcia taking innings in center.

Based on a few nuggets I’ve heard on the radio broadcasts and David Lesky’s note over at Inside the Crown, I don’t get the sense India is taking particularly well to left field. There’s still time for him to get comfortable (though it’s fading quickly) but I’ve got India in the mix at 2B/3B/DH more than the outfield. Whatever the defensive alignment may be, those first five guys are going to play most days and it’ll be on Matt Quatraro to figure out how to make it work.

Where I’m still going back and forth is the decision between Nick Loftin or Cavan Biggio — or both. In the end, I’m going with Loftin for now as the guy who’s built more cache with the organization and is simply better defensively. Kansas City can stash Biggio in Triple-A to start the year, knowing they have a seasoned, versatile lefty ready to go when needed. Both Loftin (.467/.579/.667) and Biggio (.250/.478/.563) are hitting well this spring, so performance isn’t really a differentiator.

I considered carrying seven infielders and four outfielders to force in both Loftin and Biggio (with the benefit of one being right-handed and the other left-handed) but that’s putting a ton of pressure on Garcia to handle center field one or two days a week. We just haven’t seen enough to know if that’s a realistic solution, so I’m playing it safe with a more traditional six infielder/five outfielder mix — for now.

Outfielders (5)

• MJ Melendez

• Hunter Renfroe

• Kyle Isbel

• Nelson Velazquez

• Joey Wiemer

There are three locks in the outfield: Melendez, Renfroe, Isbel. In a perfect world, Massey and Garcia take well to left field and center field, respectively, allowing Quatraro to platoon Massey/Renfroe (with Melendez shifting to RF/DH) and Garcia/Isbel.

This isn’t a perfect world, unfortunately, which is why I chose to carry over Wiemer from projection 1.0 to 2.0. He’s good enough defensively to cover for Isbel against lefties with the pop to add some ceiling at the position. With Dairon Blanco still recovering from his sore Achilles (and three minor league options to play with), Wiemer feels like the safer bet to be the bench glove/runner.

Just like before, Velazquez is a case of inventory. He’s out of minor league options and, despite only registering 10 plate appearances so far this spring, I just can’t see KC giving up on a player who was an immense power threat just 18 months ago. He’s also a good roster fit alongside Melendez, giving Quatraro a right-hander off the bench who can come in late to face a left-handed reliever. Even in a difficult 2024, he posted a .250/.343/.383 line against southpaws with a 105 wRC+.

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The Royals are almost certain to face a right-hander on Opening Day against Cleveland, most likely Tanner Bibee, who allowed 10 earned runs in 22 innings against KC in 2024. With that in mind, here’s my mid-March forecast for the lineup on March 27 at Kauffman Stadium, which is identical to what I published a couple weeks ago:

1. Jonathan India, DH

2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS

3. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B

4. Salvador Perez, C

5. Michael Massey, 2B

6. MJ Melendez, LF

7. Hunter Renfroe, RF

8. Maikel Garcia, 3B

9. Kyle Isbel, CF

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It’s important to remember that’s just one lineup out of 162, and we know Quatraro likes to move guys around. The playing time distribution at 2B, 3B, DH and the outfield spots is of particular interest to me, and it’s something I plan to dive further into later this spring if/when we have a better idea how India, Massey and Garcia look on the grass.