The Kris Bubic Conundrum
Back-end starter or bullpen bully? Finding the right role could swing the season for the Royals
The frontline of the Royals starting rotation is set: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha. As is the back end of the bullpen, barring a trade: Lucas Erceg, Carlos Estevez, Hunter Harvey.
So where does Kris Bubic fit best? After climbing the minor league rungs as a starter, Bubic broke into the Bigs during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. From his debut through 2022, he pitched 309 mostly below-average innings with a 4.89 ERA, 20% K-rate and 10.5% BB-rate, relying on a three-pitch, fastball-changeup-curveball repertoire.
Then in 2023, working with new pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove, something clicked. Bubic increased his extension, added a slider and leaned less on his fastball. Unfortunately for Bubic and the Royals, he blew out in a mid-April start against Atlanta after firing 16 innings with a 3.94 ERA (2.63 FIP), 23.5% K-rate and 4.1% BB-rate, including a six-inning, nine-strikeout gem against the Giants.
It appeared he’d turned a corner with better command and an ability to generate swing-and-miss — just in time to spend 12 months in the training room. The slider was immediately a weapon, dodging barrels to the tune of a 27% whiff-rate and .182 SLG.
He returned to the Show July 7 last year and hit the ground running, tossing six shutout innings in his first five appearances. Pitching exclusively in relief in 2024, Bubic ditched the curveball entirely, more than doubled his slider usage from 15% to 36% and gave the Royals a much-needed lefty look out of the bullpen. In total, he pitched 30.1 innings for KC with a 2.67 ERA (1.81 xERA, 1.95 FIP), 32.2% K-rate and 4.1% BB-rate, by far the best stretch of his Major League career regardless of role.
After working just over 80 innings (including minor league rehab assignments) over the last two seasons combined, what can he handle in 2025?
Bubic has a few moderate workload campaigns under his belt (149.1 minor league innings in 2019 followed by 130 and 129 frames with the big club in 2021 and 2022, respectively). The bulk of projection systems are pegging him for 120 or so innings in 2025, which seems a tad aggressive for the 27-year-old lefty.
Following essentially a lost season then spending half of another exclusively in relief duty, it’s hard to see him even approaching his MLB career highs.
I’d be more inclined to expect around 100 innings of work in 2025, considerably less than that of a full-time starter, which leaves the Royals with a few options:
Give him a rotation spot out of camp behind Ragans, Lugo and Wacha then pivot to bullpen work after 60 or so innings
Start the season in the ‘pen, tapping him as the next man up if there’s a rotation injury
Work as a reliever for the bulk, if not entirety, of the season with an eye toward building up for 2026
Piggyback with another fringe rotation member (Alec Marsh?)
Signing Carlos Estevez bought the Royals some flexibility here. Bubic isn’t “needed” as a key figure to close out leads. (Not that he necessarily was before, but if Harvey’s back flared up or John Schreiber went into a tailspin, you’d all of a sudden be looking at Bubic as your third-best reliever.)
I’d open the season with Bubic and Marsh piggybacking every fifth day. It would allow Kansas City to limit Bubic to 3- or 4-inning stints where both pitchers could see their stuff play up without racking up an unsustainable workload for the southpaw, affording them the opportunity to use Bubic where he’s needed most later in the season.
Say they get around 100 games in and one of the “big three” goes down. At that point, Bubic would’ve thrown close to 60 innings, give or take. That’s enough wiggle room with a loose 100-inning end-of-season target to slide him into a larger role as a full-time starter for a month or so before using him as a bullpen weapon in September (and hopefully October).
It’s a realistic way they can kick the can down the road, optimizing his early-season innings while keeping him built up for a starter’s workload, if needed, knowing you can shift him into the bullpen at any given time.
If he’s deployed as a full-time starter early, that flexibility is shot later when injuries are more likely to mount. On the flip side, limiting him to one-inning stints early means he’d need to build back up to 80-90 pitches if the need for a starter arises.
A hybrid role provides the best of both worlds: A built-up Bubic who can be unleashed when the Royals need him — and that slider — the most.