Bubble Boys, Pitching Edition

4 spots in the Royals' rotation are spoken for and a previously shoddy bullpen has been shored up. Who's on the roster bubble for 2025?

Photo courtesy of AP/Charlie Riedel

The first Royals Spring Training game of 2025 is Friday against Texas (Statcast data will be available!), which means the roster battles begin in earnest. In a twist from the dark days of 2018-2023, there aren’t a ton of roster spots truly up for grabs.

There are 1-3 offensive bench spots available, depending on your confidence level in any of Nick Loftin, Nelson Velazquez, Dairon Blanco, Joey Wiemer, Drew Waters, Cavan Biggio… so, yeah, three bench spots available.

On the pitching side, four rotation members are penciled in with Matt Quatraro already alluding to Michael Lorenzen having the fourth spot all to himself before throwing a pitch in Surprise. Of the eight available bullpen slots, I’d consider five locked down but I may be more confident in Angel Zerpa than others.

We’ve been on a pitching kick around here for the last few editions of the newsletter, with profiles on Daniel Lynch and Lorenzen plus a deep dive on Stuff+, so why not keep it going?

Here are the Bubble Boys on the pitching side with my predictions for Opening Day.

Royals Pitching

13 Roster Spots (5 Rotation, 8 Bullpen)

Rotation: 4 Locks (Ragans/Lugo/Wacha/Lorenzen), 1 Open

Bullpen: 4 Locks (Erceg, Estevez, Harvey, Schreiber), 4 Open

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Angel Zerpa (1 Minor League Option Remaining)

I know, I said I view him as a lock, and I do. But it seems like most others are listing him as “probable” for the Opening Day roster so it seemed fitting to go ahead and include him here.

Despite the big sinker (96.5 MPH, nearly four ticks harder than average lefties in MLB) and 95.8 MPH four-seamer, Zerpa doesn’t blow batters away. He gets it done by keeping the ball on the ground — his 58.4% GB placed him 11th among 169 qualified relievers, according to FanGraphs. First-percentile chase and whiff rates mean the ball is in play a lot, but that heavy sinker helps him avoid damage with a 74.7% GB rate of its own.

It may seem silly, but what puts him over the top for me as a borderline roster lock is simply trust. Quatraro plugged Zerpa into big spots in last year’s postseason run, appearing in five of KC’s six games, tossing four innings with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Unfortunately, people might cling to Game 2 of the ALDS against New York when he walked two and gave up a hit without registering an out, but outside of that mini-implosion, he was pretty nails in the playoffs.

Opening Day Prediction: Big League Bullpen

Kris Bubic (1 Option)

In no way is Bubic on the roster bubble, but I wanted to get him out of the way here since his role is what’s left to be determined. I do believe Kansas City intends on him opening the season as its fifth starter. There are some issues that arise with him working as a starter from day one, but the Royals believe in the talent (as do I) and Alec Marsh opening camp a bit behind with a sore shoulder only tilts the competition further toward Bubic.

Opening Day Prediction: Fifth Starter

Alec Marsh (1 Option)

Speaking of Marsh, who’s “back on track throwing” as Anne noted in the post above, he’s in a bit of an interesting spot. One thing I don’t think is discussed often enough is Kansas City’s relative lack of Major League-ready starting pitchers, and I think it could hurt Marsh’s chances of being on the Opening Day roster.

If you look at things in a vacuum, he’s certainly one of the club’s best 13 arms. Marsh held up pretty well for a big chunk of 2024 as the Royals fifth starter with a six-pitch arsenal that graded out with a cumulative 95 Stuff+. He’s not going to strike out 30% of opponents or compete for a Cy Young, but his 4.53 ERA (4.34 FIP, 4.08 SIERA) was perfectly acceptable for a fifth starter.

There are sharp folks who think his stuff could play up in the bullpen, so perhaps he does open the year as the long man who gets some middle relief work, but I think the Royals would be best served keeping as many of their quality starters stretched out as possible.

Opening Day Prediction: Omaha to Stay Stretched Out as a Starter

Daniel Lynch (1 Option)

As much as I believe Lynch’s future is in the bullpen, he faces the same uphill climb as Marsh. The Royals lack dependable arms they could plug into the rotation in case of injury, and that means they’ll need to keep as many of their trusted pitchers stretched out as possible. Particularly if I’m wrong about Marsh and he makes the club as the long man, that would all but assure Lynch would need to stay stretched out as the next man up.

Opening Day Prediction: Omaha to Stay Stretched Out as a Starter

Noah Cameron (3 Options)

Cameron was added to the 40-man roster this offseason after 2024 saw him rifle 128.2 innings of 3.08 ERA ball with a 1.21 WHIP across Double-A and Triple-A. His 21.1% K-BB displays a quality combination of command and stuff, and the 23.8% mark he posted in Omaha was good enough for fifth across the International League among pitchers with at least 50 innings at the level last year.

He’ll make his debut at some point in 2025, but barring an electric spring, Cameron will head back to Omaha to open the season.

Opening Day Prediction: Omaha

Jonathan Bowlan (1 Option)

Bowlan, who flashed early in his career as a second round selection out of Memphis in 2018, has been rather unimpressive since undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2021 campaign. Since then, he’s posted minor league ERAs of 5.92 in 2022, 5.91 in 2023 and 4.67 in 2024. He’ll need to pitch his way back up the organizational hierarchy to avoid a DFA this time next year.

Opening Day Prediction: Omaha

Chris Stratton (0 Options)

This is where things get interesting. Stratton struggled to get going for the Royals in 2024, pitching 58.1 innings with a 5.55 ERA (4.62 FIP, 5.02 SIERA) and dismal 4.3% K-BB. After exercising his player option in the offseason, he’s owed $4.5 million in 2025.

This regime, under JJ Picollo and John Sherman, has showed more of a willingness to move on from sunk costs. But from 2020-2023, Stratton was a pretty stable reliever across 255.1 innings with multiple organizations, boasting a 3.91 ERA and cumulative 3.2 fWAR. It’s easy to peg him as a DFA candidate, and while that’s certainly in the cards, I lean toward KC giving him a short leash in April to see if he can reclaim his previous production.

Opening Day Prediction: Short Leash in the Big League Bullpen

Carlos Hernandez (0 Options)

Another right-hander Royals fans have seen plenty (too much?) of in recent years. His high-octane arsenal includes a 98 MPH four-seamer and power slider with a 115 Stuff+ grade but stuff isn’t the issue — it’s all command. He’s walked 11.2% of hitters he’s faced in his five-year MLB career, derailing what many viewed at one time as a closer-of-the-future profile.

Hernandez has shown no signs he can get the control, well, under control, but again, I’m predicting the organization gives him a shot in April.

Opening Day Prediction: Short Leash in the Big League Bullpen

Sam Long (0 Options)

Long has the same advantage as Stratton and Hernandez when it comes to breaking camp with the big club: no options remaining. However, he’s yet to draw Royals fans’ ire in the same way as the pair of right-handers.

The 29-year-old southpaw registered a 3.16 ERA (3.89 FIP, 3.69 SIERA) in 2024, striking out 25% of batters faced behind a 115 Stuff+ bullet slider that earned 39.7% whiffs last season. It’s an offering he added to his repertoire with Oakland in 2023 and perfected with the Royals pitching development staff last year, helping him become a reliable member of the pen. As a second left-handed option behind Zerpa, he provides cover for keeping Lynch stretched out in Triple-A.

Opening Day Prediction: Big League Bullpen

Steven Cruz (2 Options), Evan Sisk (3), Eric Cerantola (3)

If you’re following along with the math, the open spots in the Major League bullpen are spoken for in this projection. But these three round out the relief arms on the 40-man roster, all with varying skillsets. Cruz is armed with an electric 98 MPH heater, Cerantola boasted a 2.97 ERA across 72.2 innings in Double-A and Triple-A last season and Sisk provides left-handed depth, as profiled here by Kevin O-Brien at Royals Reporter.

There’s certainly a chance one of these guys can pitch well enough this spring to knock the door down and force a DFA of Stratton or Hernandez, but that’s not how the Royals (or most MLB teams) typically operate.

I’d imagine the veterans are given some leash in the opening month of the season, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if KC moves on from one of them quickly should they falter early in favor of a younger option with more upside and roster flexibility.

Opening Day Predictions: Omaha

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I’ll readily admit this is a pretty boring roster projection. In fact, this iteration of the pitching staff is what’s projected by RosterResource (not my intention when I started this project!) but sometimes “boring” is simply following the most logical path.

Again, none of this is to say Kansas City won’t quickly shake things up should one of Stratton, Hernandez or Long implode early. But Major League depth is a valuable commodity, and it’s hard for me to see the club sacrificing that depth before giving the vets a shot in 2025.

*Late edit: I omitted James McArthur and Kyle Wright from this analysis due to their injuries. McArthur underwent elbow surgery in the offseason and Wright continues ramping up with his eye on a 2025 Royals debut. At the time of publication, my guess is they’ll both open the season on the injured list.