Early Spring Pitch Model Risers
5 Royals pitchers wielding eye-catching arsenals in Surprise
Through six Spring Training outings, Royals pitchers have allowed 29 runs. That may not jump off the page statistically, but considering it’s Arizona (where the ball carries… and carries and carries) and teams are shuttling 6-10 arms to the mound each day, it’s a testament to Kansas City’s Major League arms showing up to camp ready to roll.
In fact, 14 of those runs have come at the hands of Austin Cox, Carlos Hernandez, Junior Fernandez and Chandler Champlain, only one of whom (Hernandez) has more than an outside shot at cracking the Opening Day roster.
It’s not just the surface stats that look appealing for the pitching staff, though. Diving into the pitch-level data courtesy of TJ Stats, there’s more than a handful of individual offerings that stand out so far.
Before we get into the metrics, it’s important to note we’re looking at a tiny, tiny sample. Some of this analysis will end up meaningless; that’s the nature of sifting through Spring Training data. Stuff+, in particular, requires about 80 pitches to stabilize — we’re working with 5-20 pitches here, so keep that caveat in mind.
However, we may also be able to catch an arsenal change or improvement that leads to a breakout, whether it’s an established arm looking to take the next step or a Triple-A prospect making that final tweak necessary to become a Big Leaguer.
As mentioned, all of the data we’re working with comes from TJ Stats (an excellent follow on X) unless otherwise noted.
Noah Cameron (Four-Seam Fastball)
As I wrote earlier this week in the Spring Training notebook, Cameron was one of the first Royals to pop this spring. He was impressive in the opener against Texas, needing just 13 pitches to work two shutout innings with one hit allowed and one strikeout. His second outing against Colorado Wednesday was a bit more of an adventure, firing 33 pitches across two innings of work, allowing four hits and two runs on a Nick Martini homer.
Still, Cameron amassed a 30% CSW and 47% O-Swing against the Rockies, earning six whiffs on 21 swings, including four empty hacks against his cutter. The stuff was better than his line alluded.
That cutter, along with the four-seamer, have captured my (and everyone else’s) attention. He’s fired the fastball 16 times this spring and it’s sitting 95.1 MPH, up 2.8 MPH from his time in Triple-A last season. An 89 tjStuff+ doesn’t scream “elite,” but that’s a two-point gain from 2024, largely thanks to the velocity increase paired with 2.1 inches of added arm-side run. Truth is, it’s not a good pitch and probably won’t be — but anything closer to average will only help the cutter/curve/change play up.
Cameron only used his cutter twice against Texas but 10 times against the Rockies, who swung at it seven times and whiffed at four of them. The cutter’s velocity is also up about half a tick and it offers 3.4 inches of glove-side cut for some nice differentiation from the four-seam and changeup. That’s enough to register a 103 tjStuff+, up from 98 last season.
If he can maintain these velocity gains over longer outings and a larger sample, he’ll find himself in Kansas City in no time.
Kris Bubic (Slider/Cutter and Changeup)
I’ve written a few times about Bubic’s intention to add a cutter/gyro slider to his mix this season. Whatever he chooses to call it, the pitch is currently registering as his slider, which has gained 2.9 MPH and 3.6 inches of induced vertical break (iVB).
You can see from Bubic’s pitch plot (the green dots and bubble below) that, among eight “sliders,” he’s probably thrown a few of the new cutter and a few of his traditional slider, hence the larger separation between those offerings compared to tighter groupings for the rest of his arsenal. (He said as much after the game against the White Sox, too.) Once the pitch models pick up on these separate offerings, we’ll have a better read on the cutter’s metrics.
There’s no mistaking Bubic’s changeup, though. It’s up to a 104 tjStuff+ with added drop (-0.8 iVB compared to 4.3 in 2024) and reduced run, helping to separate it further from his four-seamer and the sinker he’s aiming to use more often in 2025 (just 3% usage in 2024, per Baseball Savant).
Jonathan Bowlan (Four-Seam Fastball and Slider)
When Anne Rogers reported the Royals intended to transition Bowlan full-time to a relief role, I was a bit surprised. Not because Bowlan’s future as a starter is particularly bright — it’s just early in spring to make that decision.
Now we might see why. In his one-inning, 17-pitch outing against the Dodgers, he displayed a harder four-seamer that may play up in shorter stints. The heater sat 95.8 MPH, up nearly two ticks from last season.
Against Colorado on Wednesday, he made quick work of the Rockies in the 9th, needing just 10 pitches to rack up two strikeouts with a 60% CSW and three whiffs on five swings. The heater didn’t carry the same weight, down to 94.9 MPH, so we’ll see if it can climb back up or if it was a one-time showing against LA. This time, it was the slider’s turn to shine, as he snapped it off five times for two called strikes and two whiffs.
That slider reached a 104 tjStuff+ through two outings, up from 101 in 2024, with six extra inches of drop.
Andrew Hoffman (Four-Seam Fastball and Changeup)
The largest delta in TJ’s stuff+ model among Royals pitchers/pitches compared to 2024? Hoffman’s changeup, improving from a grade of 89 in Omaha last year to a 111(!) across 16 offerings this spring. It’s sinking like a stone, too, with eight more inches of drop and about four inches less tail.
Hoffman’s heater hasn’t generated quite the same improvements, but it is up about a tick on the gun with two inches of added iVB, further separating the four-seamer from the slowball vertically.
The surface stats for the 26-year-old are there as well with three innings of one-run ball and five strikeouts, including a 44% CSW and five whiffs induced as a lone pitching bright spot in the slugfest against the Dodgers.
Luinder Avila (Everything)
Avila’s full arsenal was on display in his spring debut against the Athletics on Monday, generating a 36% CSW with four whiffs on eight swings. His name buzzed on Royals X/Twitter, which is saying something considering he immediately followed Cole Ragans in that contest.
He was downright nasty, touching 98.5 MPH with both the fastball and sinker. It’s worth noting that while 96 tjStuff+ may not immediately sound like a ringing endorsement for the sinker, it’s a pitch type that doesn’t grade well in models — in fact, 96 is slightly above-average.
Avila’s repertoire includes a fastball with elite velocity and good ride, a sinker with elite velocity and good run and — oh yeah — a hammer curveball boasting 2,887 RPM. That spin rate would’ve been 23rd in MLB for its pitch type among those who threw at least 250 pitches in 2024.
The 23-year-old is off to a blazing start this spring and I’m fascinated to see if these metrics can hold up over the long haul, particularly if his stuff can maintain across longer outings as a future SP2/3. If nothing else, Kansas City is looking at a lights-out reliever.
well done my guy