Spring Training Notebook — Vol. 1

The Royals are 3-0-1 thanks to late-game heroics in Arizona and superb pitching. Who's standing out so far?

Photo courtesy of MLB.com

When the Royals opened their Spring Training slate Friday against their complex companions, the Texas Rangers, I started sharing a few postgame nuggets/notes from the action. They were a hit on X/Twitter, diving into the data that goes beyond the box score.

Since you all seem to have a keen interest in that type of quick-hitting information, I’ll plan to occasionally compile those notes into longer-form “notebook” posts here to help wrap up every handful of games or so.

As it stands, the Royals are 3-0-1 after Monday’s 1-1 draw against the Oakland Athletics in Surprise. It’s mostly good news through the first weekend of action — KC’s core players are healthy, the bats started hot and a few pitchers made an early mark.

Here’s what’s stood out to me after four games with the caveat, of course, that we’re working with a minuscule sample:

Front-Page Performers

Noah Cameron: The St. Joseph, Mo., native worked two clean innings Friday against Texas, striking out one while giving up a hit. It was a clean 2025 debut for the 25-year-old, whose four-seamer sat 95 MPH, up from 92.2 at Triple-A last season. His cutter carried some extra juice as well, up 1 MPH from 2024 along with an extra 200 RPM. I sort of wrote Cameron off as a candidate for the Opening Day roster, but if the added heat on the fastball holds up, he’ll reach a new level of rotation threat.

Tyler Gentry: How about another player in his mid-20s whom I didn’t seriously consider for the roster? Gentry’s three-run bomb against the Rangers Friday not only gave KC the victory, it represented something of an anomaly for the corner outfielder — the 104.2 MPH exit velocity was a mark he reached just eight times in Triple-A last season with a middling average EV of 87.2. He followed it up against the Dodgers with a 106.6 MPH single. After looking overmatched in a handful of Major League plate appearances in 2024, he’s now 3-for-5 this spring with a 95.2 MPH average exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.

Statcast Stars

Jac Caglianone: The big story from Sunday. I mistakenly said on X that his solo homer in the 9th inning was the game winner — it wasn’t, but at 115.4 MPH off the bat and 435 feet to dead center, it certainly felt that way. I also noted that exit velocity would’ve ranked him T-23 on the maximum EV leaderboard in 2024 alongside Jorge Soler and a few others. That part was true, but there’s even more in the tank — he hit a baseball 117.3 MPH in the Arizona Fall League.

Nick Loftin: He may not have a monster homer to boast about, but the batted-ball data is a welcome sign. After posting 29.9% and 26% hard-hit rates across Triple-A and MLB last year, respectively, along with 86.1 and 83.6 average EV, Loftin is also 3-for-5 this spring to go with three walks drawn. His 99.4 MPH average EV through a few apperances in Arizona paired with a 75% hard-hit rate are positive early signs.

Freddy Fermin: It was on the ground and went into the book as an error, but the 105.6 MPH screamer he hit against the Dodgers Saturday would’ve been his fourth-hardest hit baseball in 2024.

Carter Jensen: Before being outdone by Caglianone a few innings later, Jensen banished a 92.5 MPH James Karinchak fastball from Surprise Stadium, escorting it quickly over the right field wall at 109.1 MPH off the bat. The four-seamer was over the heart of the plate but at the top of the zone, allowing Jensen to show off his quick hands.

Jonathan Bowlan: Anne Rogers reported Sunday the Royals are shifting Bowlan to the bullpen full-time. It might be a good idea, too, as evidenced by his fastball sitting 95.8 MPH against Los Angeles, up from 94.1 at Triple-A last year. Worth noting too his changeup spin averaged 1,731 RPM, up nearly 300 RPM.

Mound Machines

Daniel Lynch: As I’ve written about here and on X, the decision with Lynch (whether he opens the season in the bullpen or stays stretched out at Triple-A, with an outside shot at winning the fifth spot in the rotation) is going to determine a lot in how KC structures its Big League pitching staff. He showed off his effectiveness in shorter stints again with his two-inning start against Texas, finding the zone with 64% of his offerings while leaning on the changeup he used just 21% of the time in 2024. Outside of the slowball, Lynch’s stuff didn’t really pop and he generated just a 21% CSW with three whiffs on 18 swings, but he managed to toss two scoreless innings with two punchouts anyway.

Kris Bubic: The presumed leading man for the fifth spot in the rotation, Bubic showed why on Sunday against the White Sox. He was sharp, efficient and effective in 27 pitches across two innings, posting a sparkling 37% CSW with four whiffs on 14 swings, two of those coming on his changeup. It bears mentioning he’s talked about adding a cutter to his repertoire. While Statcast doesn’t show that he used it, Bubic’s slider was up 2.2 MPH with 5 inches less vertical break — I suspect a few (if not most) of those eight offerings were the cutter. Bubic also threw five sinkers, a pitch he used just 3% of the time last season.

From Anne Rogers:

Tyson Guerrero: Guerrero pitched most of last season at Double-A, and while he’s a bit lower in the prospect pecking order, he did show well on Sunday, getting four whiffs and coaxing Chicago into a 45% O-Swing.

Andrew Hoffman: In a high-scoring affair against LA that featured 21 runs, Hoffman was a welcome relief in his two scoreless innings, allowing one hit while punching out three Dodgers. The 44% CSW and five whiffs on 11 swings more than kept the reigning champs at bay for a couple of frames while the Royals offense clawed its way back.

Luinder Avila: The 23-year-old’s stuff was loud Monday afternoon against the A’s, resulting in an impressive 36% CSW. Avila’s fastball and sinker both touched 98.5 MPH, with the four-seamer averaging 97.6. He snapped off some nasty breakers that featured nearly 3,000 RPM and showed off 10+ inches of fade on both the sinker and changeup. He made his presence felt in his first spring appearance.

Steven Zobac: Monday was a boon for Royals pitching. I haven’t even mentioned Cole Ragans (we all know what he can do) but after Ragans and Avila tossed four scoreless combined innings, Zobac got lost in their shadows. He deserves his flowers, too, posting a 31% CSW with four whiffs on 19 swings. Zobac pounded the A’s hitters with strikes, tallying a 61% zone rate.

Slow Starters

Carlos Hernandez: 11 of the Royals’ 15 earned runs across the first three games were charged to Hernandez and the next two arms. Out of options, Hernandez needs a good spring to earn a spot in the bullpen, and he’s off to a shaky start with four earned runs, three hits and a walk allowed in his one inning against the Dodgers. His fastball was down 1.2 MPH from 2024, maxing out at just 97.7.

Chandler Champlain: Champlain’s place within the organization isn’t at risk the way Hernandez’s is, but he didn’t exactly wow against Los Angeles either. In fact, his line nearly mirrored Hernandez’s, working 1.1 innings with two hits, one walk and three earned runs allowed, including two homers. He’s the type to pound hitters with strikes (evidenced by his 91st-percentile 52.3% zone rate in Omaha last year) but found the zone just 38% of the time Saturday.

Austin Cox: The 27-year-old tossed one frame against Texas and another against Chicago on Sunday. He struggled both times out, giving up two earned runs in each.

Bobby Witt Jr./Vinnie Pasquantino: They’re a combined 0-for-11 at the plate and I couldn’t be less concerned.

MJ Melendez: The new swing isn’t working (yet). He’s 0-for-5 to start spring… and with four strikeouts to boot. He whiffed on four of his six swings Monday against the A’s.

News and Notes

Blake Mitchell: A brutal injury for the top catching prospect. Hamate fractures tend to linger, so it’s a pretty big blow that goes beyond simply returning to action in a couple of months.

Jonathan India: The new leadoff man started Friday and Sunday in left field. While his defensive opportunities have been limited, he did lose a ball in the sun on Sunday. More importantly, he’s done what he does best through two games — reach base at a .500 clip with a hit and a walk in four at-bats.