On the Record
Opening Day is finally here — what does 2025 have in store for the Royals? My predictions for the AL Central, postseason success, team MVP and much more
If you’re reading this, it’s OPENING DAY! (Or maybe you’re catching up on Friday after a day at the K…)
Either way, the buzz is in the air for baseball season. It’s funny, there’s always a wave of excitement when pitchers and catchers report. Then a second wind during that first week of Spring Training games.
Followed by a long, winding, sometimes boring, seemingly never-ending stretch of pitching changes, pinch hitters, defensive replacements and the drawl of four more weeks in Surprise.
Now, though, we’ve hit Christmas Day for seamheads. It’s one game of 162, but it always feels like so more than that. The Royals and Cole Ragans were felled on Opening Day last year by Pablo Lopez and the Twins, and proceeded to drop two of three in that opening series. In a highly anticipated series (or however anticipated an April matchup can be) against Baltimore, another up-and-coming AL team, KC dropped two of three again in some tightly contested affairs.
It felt like the world was crumbling, despite some positive signs. Honestly, it just felt like another Royals season after back-to-back years of 97+ losses.
Then they swept the lowly White Sox. They swept the not-so-lowly Astros. And it was off to the races in a magical season that saw a 30-win improvement over 2023.
While we obviously can’t anticipate another record-breaking gain in the win column coming off 86 victories, expectations are as high as they’ve been in a decade. The Royals are a rare team with both a frontline MVP candidate and a Cy Young contender (perhaps multiple). They’re operated by a savvy front office. They’re led by an even-keeled manager. They trot out a menacing, veteran-laden starting rotation and three boppers with 100+ RBI potential. They’ve reinforced a bullpen that leaked too often for four months in 2024.
I can’t wait to see what 2025 has in store for us. Here’s how I see it shaking out.
Team MVP
Yes, I’m excluding Bobby Witt Jr. from consideration here. He’s second in AL MVP odds according to the sportsbooks, so of course it’s unfair (and un-fun) to choose him as our team MVP. We know he’s the most valuable, most important and best player on the roster, almost inarguably the best player the organization has had in 40 years.
Removing Bobby from the equation, I’m going with Jonathan India as the Royals 2025 MVP. He’s a leadoff man in every sense of the phrase, boasting elite chase, whiff and walk rates that help him reach base 35% of the time. Hitting in front of Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino and the captain, Salvador Perez, hopefully leads to 100+ runs scored for India as the sparkplug at the top of the lineup.
The move from Great American Smallpark — er, Ballpark — to Kauffman Stadium is by no means a boost, but there’s a chance the spacious outfield actually plays more to India’s strengths as a hitter with more gap power than bleacher reaching pop.
THE BAT X projection system expects a .253/.349/.402 slash with 14 homers, 74 runs, 61 RBI and 13 steals for India, good for a 113 wRC+. I’ll take the overs across the board as I anticipate him leading the charge toward the playoffs alongside KC’s incumbent sluggers.
Team Cy Young
Again, we have an obvious candidate here in Cole Ragans with his top-notch arsenal and maturation into a full-fledged ace. I will take the easy way out on this one BUT with a bold-ish prediction that the 27-year-old lefty turns in an even better campaign than last. It’s hard to improve on a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 223 punchouts in a career-high 186.1 innings, which led to a fourth-place Cy Young finish, but I think there’s more he can accomplish.
Specifically, the walk rate — at 8.8% a season ago, he finished in the 38th percentile according to Baseball Savant. It’s easy to understand why Ragans looks to dot the outer edges of the zone and coax chase from hitters outside of it with his deep pitch mix and top-tier stuff. However, Ragans led all qualified MLB pitchers last year in Z-Contact rate at 79.1%, meaning hitters made contact at a league-low rate when they swung at Ragans’ offerings that were in the strike zone.
He can get away with throwing more strikes, challenging hitters in the zone and continuing to rack up whiffs. He may not reach the same lofty strikeout totals by doing so, but he can trim the walk rate and be more efficient with his pitch count.
Bonus: I’m all aboard the Kris Bubic train, so since I took the low-hanging fruit for team Cy, I’ll throw Bubic’s name out there as a sneaky contender for most valuable pitcher on the roster. Here’s my forecast: Bubic posts an ERA in the mid-3.00s through August in the rotation before reprising his role from last postseason as a late-game weapon out of the bullpen, helping give Kansas City a truly elite quartet of Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey and Bubic to slam the door shut on leads.
X-Factors
Let’s go rapid fire here since you’re excited for Opening Day, I’m excited for Opening Day and we’re already closing in on 1,000 words with multiple sections still to go.
Michael Lorenzen — We’re confident in the stability Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha provide. As mentioned, I’m in on Bubic, but do think he hits an innings wall late in the summer. Lorenzen is a key piece as a swingman who I envision starting 20 or so games while spending spurts of the season in the bullpen when guys like Alec Marsh and Noah Cameron are ready to contribute.
Hunter Harvey — Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are locked in as the closer and fireman. Harvey, when he’s healthy, is about as good of a third man as you can ask for, but that’s the caveat… when he’s healthy. Can he put together a full season without the back flaring up?
Maikel Garcia — My thoughts on Garcia are documented. He’s a borderline elite defender and baserunner, and could add to his value if he’s able to play center field and push Kyle Isbel to the bench against lefties. If he can do anything at the plate? That’s a sneaky 2.5-3-WAR player.
MJ Melendez — Here we go again. I don’t know if Melendez’s offseason work will lead to a breakout. I don’t know what to make of his spring numbers, where his batted-ball data was superb but he still chased and whiffed like the old Melendez. I don’t know how long of a leash he has in 2025, but he needs to hit the ground running to keep his job as a near-everyday player. Gavin Cross looms as a left-handed hitting replacement should Melendez stumble out of the gate.
Michael Massey — A lot of Michaels and Maikels here in the X-factors list. This one, the left-handed hitting Massey, would be an ideal seventh hitter — but for the Royals, he’ll slot in fifth/sixth most days against righties with a lot of weight on his shoulders and balky back to drive in runs behind the boppers.
Jac Caglianone
The man is 6-foot-5 and 250 pounds. He’s the top prospect in the Royals system. He’s hit moonballs in Spring Training. The hype has reached a point he’s worth his own section in a season preview.
Projecting prospects is often a fruitless exercise, especially power-hitting ones. Some develop rapidly and lead to lukewarm prognostications featured on Cold Takes Exposed. Some develop slowly and leave people disappointed. Let’s do it this way: Here’s how Caglianone would find himself in Kansas City on my ideal, bullish but (mostly) realistic timeline for 2025.
He’s starting the campaign with Double-A Northwest Arkansas, which begins its season Friday, April 4. He’ll spend around three weeks mashing at that level and playing first base.
On Monday, April 28, an off day for both Northwest Arkansas and the Omaha Storm Chasers (as most Mondays are in the minor leagues), he’ll make the jump to Triple-A.
After a few weeks or a month of playing first base and keeping his confidence up at the dish, he’ll be shifted to right field (let’s say Tuesday, May 27) to ready himself for an opening in the Major Leagues.
Once he proves he can handle a new position (or not) for another 3-4 weeks, and if he’s still hitting for power while keeping his chase, whiff and strikeout rates in check, he’ll patiently await that special call to the Show — which will come on Monday, June 23 (an off day), setting Caglianone up for a Tuesday, June 24 debut against the Rays at Kauffman Stadium.
I said ideal, bullish and mostly realistic — but after typing it out, this is more aggressive than I intended and makes a lot of assumptions about Caglianone continuing to hit across two different levels while taking well to a new position. (This is where I admit to you I have tickets for the June 24 game.) If this doesn’t come to fruition and he’s not up until August or September or even 2026, it’s not some indictment on his future as a Big Leaguer. We need to keep that in mind.
Regular Season Record: 89-73
The player takes are equal parts fun and insightful. Breaking things down into individual pieces helps paint the broader picture, which leads me to predict 89-73 as the Royals record in 2025. After a 30-win improvement in 2024, this is a more modest (yet meaningful) three-win gain that puts them firmly in the race for the division and all but assures a Wild Card spot. In the last three seasons with the updated playoff format, 89 wins comfortably gets you into the American League dance and would put KC in position in the final week to compete for the division crown.
The addition of India, the fortification of the bullpen with Estevez and full seasons from Erceg and Harvey, multiple looming prospects ready to make an impact and a front office I trust to sufficiently plug holes at the deadline leaves me fully confident in this team to climb another rung up the wins ladder.
AL Central Standings
Of course the Royals can win the division. I am, once again, taking the easy way out to say the AL Central will be incredibly tight, and likely come down to the final week of action, as you can see from my rudimentary spreadsheet skills, with three teams once again qualifying for the postseason.
The Tigers roll out a talented rotation with plenty of untapped upside and a good enough bullpen behind one of the best managers in the game. Cleveland is Cleveland and will find unheralded right-handed command artists and fire-breathing relievers to complement Jose Ramirez until the sun implodes. Minnesota might be the most talented team in the division across the board, but I simply don’t trust them to be healthy enough for six months — Royce Lewis is already on the shelf.
All this is to say, none of those four teams winning the division would surprise me. It’s going to be a summer-long battle.
Postseason Prediction
Projecting the Royals to finish as bridesmaids again in the AL Central may feel like stagnation, despite adding three wins to the ledger. Where I see this team taking a real step forward is when and where it matters most: the postseason.
In a wide open American League, I believe Kansas City makes it to the ALCS on the backs of its stars in Witt and Ragans; a bona fide leadoff hitter in India; a shutdown bullpen; a lineup-altering move at the deadline (whether via trade, Caglianone’s emergence or both); and the experience (and internal disappointment) of 2024’s ALDS loss driving them.
Much like the mid-2010s, it’s a roster that’s built for October. Put the ball in the hands of your stars. Fill out a relentless, speedy lineup that constantly puts pressure on the opponent. Field an above-average defense that doesn’t leak runs when it counts the most. Lock games down on the back end with flamethrowers and guile.
Whether the Royals have enough firepower to overcome a deep Orioles side, a slugging Rangers outfit or the omnipresent October Astros for a World Series berth is where I struggle to climb fully out onto the limb, but I believe Kansas City finds itself one step away with a chance at postseason glory.
With a combination of star power and savvy vets, X-factors and unknowns, 2025 is sure to be one of the most fun Royals seasons in recent memory. Thank you for joining me on the journey during this first year of Royals Data Dugout’s existence. I hope you’ll subscribe, share with your friends and talk baseball with me here and on X throughout the summer.
Play ball.
best of luck to the royals next year
Fountains Up!!!