Royal Scrolls: KC Aces a Test as the Rookie Continues His Ascent
Plus an update on the future of Royals Data Dugout
Royal Scrolls is a recap of the week so far and a preview of the weekend ahead, along with news, nuggets and notes.
Bottom five across MLB in runs scored, OPS, wRC+ and barrel rate.
And yet… the Royals sure can beat an ace.
Despite sour offensive output for two full months of baseball, the Royals (30-27) have toppled Tarik Skubal (leader in the AL Cy Young Race), Logan Webb (currently fourth in NL Cy Young odds) and, now, Cincinnati Reds flamethrowing 25-year-old Hunter Greene, whose 25.7% K-BB is among the game’s elite.
Now, to be fair, KC managed only two runs apiece off Skubal and Greene, so it’s not as if they lit up either ace the way they did Webb, whom they knocked out of the game after just four innings with 10 hits and six runs.
Still, it’s a wonderful example of the oddities of this silly game that enthralls us for 162 nights — and hopefully more — every year. A lineup that can’t scratch anything across against debutants and journeymen finding a way against baseball’s best is why the game isn’t played on a spreadsheet1.
Greene came out pumping gas, as he’s wont to do, topping 100+ MPH with his four-seamer twice in the third inning. He finished with just 10 whiffs on 41 swings and 88 total pitches, a marginal mark for a young pitcher who’s learned his best path toward success is daring hitters to try to touch his dazzling fastball and dancing slider/splitter inside the strike zone. Cincinnati’s former first-round pick upped his zone rate from ~50% through the first few seasons of his career to nearly 60% in 2025, leaning into his new ethos exemplified by one of the greatest baseball quotes of all-time.
“It takes balls to throw strikes in the Big Leagues.” — Hunter Greene
With seven hits and a walk in five innings with Greene on the bump, Kansas City put plenty of pressure on the palpable right-hander, finally coming through in the bottom of the fourth on a Drew Waters seeing-eye single that scored a dashing Maikel Garcia from first base as he was running on the pitch. Bobby Witt Jr. doubled in the fifth to score John Rave, who reached with his first knock as a Big Leaguer, before another Witt RBI on a sac fly in the seventh tallied the game’s winning run.
In fact, it was Kansas City’s own budding star who held bats at bay Wednesday night at Kauffman Stadium as Noah Cameron worked another quality start with 6.1 frames of one-run ball — but we’ll get to him in a minute.
There are countless nights like these on the baseball calendar when the importance of a victory over an opposing megastar seems amplified in the moment, only to be forgotten to the time and cadence of a long season. In the thick of a Wild Card race and with buy/sell decisions looming, however, wins like these are more than feel-good triumphs to cap off frustrating stretches.
On the outside looking in at a playoff spot and trapped in what’s become a tricky division, avoiding a sweep at the K was paramount — and not just for morale. It’s time for the lineup to pull its weight, just as it did Wednesday, just as reinforcements are en route and just as the kings of the AL Central jungle come to town for the weekend.
Crowning Achievements
The Rook Deserves to Stay
Cameron’s fourth consecutive quality start — a stat that doesn’t do justice to the way he’s performed — goes beyond simply an impressive historical footnote.
It’s been a much-needed lift for a rotation that lost ace Cole Ragans and 2024 Cy Young runner-up Seth Lugo to injured list stints. The young left-hander, now boasting a 1.05 ERA and 0.82 WHIP across 25.2 innings, is proving he’s more than a placeholder. With another 6+ inning outing against Cincinnati that saw him scatter six hits and two walks while striking out a pair, Cameron is also learning how to best weaponize his five-pitch mix.
The southpaw effectively hid his hittable four-seam fastball by instead leading with his downward-action curveball that earned a 44.4% chase rate from Reds hitters, generating three whiffs and five called strikes for a 36% CSW. Cameron pounded the right-handed-heavy lineup with gloveside cutters, inducing a harmless 77.5 MPH average exit velocity on five balls in play against the pitch.
Command is the calling card, but Cameron’s chameleon-like ability to revamp his repertoire from start to start, in his first crack at the Majors, is a testament to his pitchability. He’s now led with the fastball and backed it up with the curveball; he’s led with the changeup and backed it up with four-seamers and cutters; he’s led with the curveball and backed it up with changeups and cutters.
The Royals have a decision looming as Ragans ramps up for a return from his groin issues. Anything could happen between now and then — as Ragans is likely to require a rehab start — but assuming all goes according to plan, the options are plentiful. They could pivot to a six-man rotation, reserve some of Kris Bubic’s bullets by piggybacking him with Michael Lorenzen, shift Lorenzen into a swingman role (which gets my vote) or demote Cameron back to Triple-A until his services are again needed. One thing is for certain: He’s earned an opportunity to stay. But sometimes baseball isn’t fair.
Louder Contact Leading to Results
It may not be prototypical production from a first baseman with just one extra-base hit over the last six games, but Vinnie Pasquantino is officially back to providing positive results from the three-hole. He’s slashed .455/.520/500 over the last week for a 199 wRC+ with four runs and an RBI as his season line is climbing back toward expectation at .251/.301/.397.
A declining walk rate and increasing strikeout rate each season of his four-year career is worrisome for a player who should be ascending at 27 years old, but the signs are pointing up in May for Pasquantino.
Notably, he recorded the highest exit velocity of his career on Tuesday against the Reds, smashing a 114.4 MPH lineout (of course) as his average exit velocity climbed from 90 MPH in April to 92.3 MPH in May. The hard-hit rate followed the same trajectory, leaping from 38.9% to 50.6%, and the results are trending up, as they often do when the underlying metrics signal good things to come.
Quiet Dominance in the ‘Pen
Despite making just two appearances in the last week, Carlos Estevez is deserving of some praise. The right-handed closer earned a four-out save Wednesday night as Lucas Erceg was unavailable (illness) for the eighth inning, continuing a stretch of seven straight scoreless outings. Dating back to May 9, Estevez has tossed 7.1 shutout innings with eight punchouts and just five baserunners allowed, quieting the (unwarranted) calls on social media for a swap in bullpen roles between he and Erceg.
After signing a two-year, $22.2 million deal in the offseason, Estevez is cobbling together the best season of his career through two months. His 1.85 ERA, 2.66 FIP and .182 batting average against are high-water marks, while a 1.07 WHIP and 3.41 xERA closely resemble his work last season with the Angels and Phillies.
Early data points stoked fear that his fastball velocity had disappeared over the winter, but the trendline is positive as he’s sat 95-96 with the four-seamer over his last handful of outings — coinciding nicely with shutdown work at the back end of games.
Weekend Preview
If the Royals intend to steal a game or three from the AL Central leaders this weekend, they’ll have to slow down the slugging Tigers lineup. Detroit resides in MLB’s top 10 in runs scored (288), home runs (65), on-base percentage (.325), slugging (.408) and wRC+ (111).
Yet, oddly, Motown’s 89.1 MPH average EV is 22nd in baseball while its 39.7% hard-hit rate is 21st. By capitalizing on the hard contact they do achieve with premium launch angles, they’ve achieved a 9.7% barrel rate, good for sixth, to lead to that swath of four-baggers.
The last two weeks haven’t been as kind to Detroit’s hitters, as they’ve managed an 86 wRC+ in 13 games on the back of a .219/.294/.352 team slash. (Regression, anyone?) Still, breakout seasons continue for first baseman Spencer Torkelson and outfielder Riley Greene, each of whom has carried hot starts into the late stages of May to carry an otherwise slumbering offense in recent weeks.
Torkelson in particular has perhaps saved his previously uninspiring career, slugging his way to a .238/.351/.513 slash and 13 bombs. It’s no early-season mirage, either — a 46% hard-hit rate and 14.4% barrel rate are lifting the former No. 1 overall pick to new heights in his fourth Major League season.
Pitching Probables
7:10 p.m. Friday: RHP Seth Lugo (3.02 ERA) vs. RHP Casey Mize (2.45 ERA)
Most importantly, Seth Lugo makes his return to the rotation after being sidelined on the 15-day IL with inflammation in the ring finger on his pitching hand. Lugo eliminates the need for a bullpen day each week — a major boost for KC’s staff.
Behind Lugo, Kansas City gets its second crack of the season at Mize, who continues putting forth career-best work for the Tigers’ rotation with a 2.45 ERA that’s more than a full run clear of his 3.71 ERA campaign in 2021 across 150.1 innings. He’s throwing more strikes than ever (53.6% zone), inducing more Statcast O-Swing than ever (30.9%) and, despite the higher zone rate, missing more bats in the zone than ever (81.9% Z-contact).
Mize’s improvements stem from throwing his best pitch more often — what a concept! — with the splitter reaching 25.6% usage, up from 18.2% in 2024. With almost 14 inches of vertical separation and seven inches of horizontal separation from his four-seam fastball, hitters (particularly left-handers) are left guessing between the two offerings as the baseball approaches the plate.
In their first matchup of 2025 against Mize, the Royals skidded to an offensive halt as Detroit’s right-hander tossed seven one-run frames with just five baserunners allowed (four hits, one walk) back on April 19.
Splits are a dangerous game to play even this far into a season, but Mize’s left/right splits have flipped from his career norms. Across five years in the Major Leagues, he’s allowed a .252/.318/.467 line to lefties — a bit of a surprise given the splitter’s success — and a .255/.304/.387 line to righties. In 2025, it’s the right-handers giving him trouble with a .411 slug. Meanwhile, opposite-handed hitters are left helpless, hitting just .172 this season.
Speaking of splits, home turf has been kind to the 28 year old in 2025 as Mize is working a 1.54 ERA across 23.1 innings while pitching at Comerica Park. When the Tigers hit the highway, as they will this weekend at the K, Mize is still perfectly serviceable but a bit more gettable with a 3.33 ERA in 24.1 road frames.
3:10 p.m. Saturday: RHP Michael Wacha (3.21 ERA) vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (2.49 ERA)
Back in mid-April when the Royals were swooning with five losses in six games, including a sweep in the Bronx, I wrote ahead of a four-game set in Detroit that it was imperative for KC to win two of the first three contests so they could salvage a split before facing the reigning Cy Young in Tarik Skubal on Sunday. (If you read the introduction, you know where this is headed…)
Lo and behold, Kansas City lost the first three contests and were careening toward a second straight sweep and seven consecutive defeats… then downed Detroit on Easter Sunday despite the Tiger ace climbing the mound. This game is so stupid sometimes.
Skubal finished five innings with two runs allowed, but the Royals worked eight baserunners on seven hits and a walk. It’s tied for his shortest outing of 2025.
Since that time? The southpaw is shoving, tossing 40 innings across six starts with a 2.25 ERA and 1.27 FIP, punching out at least eight batters in each outing while doling out a grand total of two free passes.
It’s not as if you needed a refresher that the man is actually a machine, but Skubal is pitching better than his award-winning 2024 campaign. His 1.96 FIP and 32.3% K-BB are best in the Bigs by a wide margin. He’s walking the lowest percentage (2.7%) of hitters in MLB. A 2.07 SIERA, first among qualified pitchers, clears second-best (Zack Wheeler’s 2.51) by nearly half a run.
Good luck, fellas!
1:10 p.m. Sunday: LHP Kris Bubic (1.45 ERA) vs. RHP Keider Montero (4.54 ERA)
A reprieve for the Royals offense arrives in the series finale on Sunday as Keider Montero makes his eighth start of the season. The thin (145 pounds?!?) right-hander sits in the low 90s with his four-seamer and sinker that combine for around 50% usage. He plays off the fastballs with an 84 MPH sweeping slider, mid-80s changeup that blends with the sinker and looping knuckle-curve that he uses to steal strikes against left-handed hitters.
There’s not a go-to out-getter among the five-pitch mix, all of which are roughly league-average in the TJ Stats pitch model. Where Montero excels is inducing weak enough contact to survive, where he allows an 87.6 MPH average exit velocity (81st percentile across MLB) and 33.6% hard-hit rate (85th percentile).
He fills the zone with regularity — necessitated by just a 26.2% chase rate — as one of MLB’s leaders in pitches over the plate. Among arms with at least 30 innings in 2025, Montero’s 58.1% zone rate is seventh in MLB. Barring a lack of control from Montero, the Royals should see a slew of strikes in Sunday’s matinee.
Royals Data Dugout Update
After careful (borderline fearful) consideration, Royals Data Dugout will convert to a paid Substack on Monday, June 2, with two options: $5/month (the minimum Substack will allow) or $40/year. Early subscribers will receive an “early bird” discount — for anyone who commits to a paid annual subscription by Monday, June 16, the cost will be $25/year — forever.
When I launched this publication in late January, I legitimately did not know where it would go. Five subscribers, 50, 500?
I’m proud to say the growth has outperformed my expectations, eclipsing 250 Substack subscribers recently (THANK YOU!) and nearing 1,000 followers on X.
I understand and anticipate there will be pushback and criticism for turning on paid subscriptions. There are countless amazing Royals writers, podcasters and pundits — all of whom you should follow, by the way — so why should you spend the price of a coffee each month ($5) on Royals Data Dugout?
The long and short of it is that I pour a ton of time into each newsletter, digging up as much data and Royals tidbits as I can on lunch breaks, during evenings at home and any spare moment I can find.
It’s truly a labor of love — I hope you view those countless hours and the information you find here as worth your time and the cost of one-third of a beer at Kauffman Stadium.
As a paid subscriber, here’s what you can expect, including a minimum of two newsletters per week:
Royal Scrolls, the main weekly newsletter, delivered every Thursday/Friday.
One weekly data-driven newsletter, delivered every Tuesday/Wednesday.
Saturday Study Hall, delivered biweekly.
All Q&A/mailbags, with priority treatment for questions from paid subscribers.
Access to short-form posts under the Backdoor Changeups banner.
Access to Subscriber Chat through the Substack app — direct message me (and other Royals fans) with questions or comments! (One of my goals for the second half of the season is to increase activity here. It’ll be a safe place for Royals fans to discuss games, transactions, statistics and more without the noise and clutter of social media.)
Access to the comment sections.
Offseason deep dives and analysis of Royals transactions.
If you’re opposed to giving up less than one Big Mac per month, I don’t fault you one bit — we’re all saddled with subscriptions left and right, cellphone payments, utility bills, mortgages… the list is endless. I do hope you’ll remain a free subscriber, however, as you’ll continue to receive Saturday Study Hall entries and Q&A/mailbag newsletters. So don’t unsubscribe!
For those on the fence… stick with me. We’re on the ground floor of growing this publication and I need your help. Even if you don’t plan to convert to a paid subscriber in the near future, I hope you’ll share this publication with a friend and enjoy the occasional free content.
TL;DR: Royals Data Dugout is becoming a paid Substack, but you have two weeks to jump on an early bird discount of $25/year. I hope you’ll join me as this publication continues growing!
I recognize the juxtaposition of this sentence coming from a publication with “data” in its name.
Glad to contribute to your newsletter! Thanks for the great content!
There is a ton of Royals content out there, and you create some of the very best of it!