Bubble Boys, Hitting Edition
5 infielders, 5 outfielders battling for Opening Day bench spots for the Royals, and a 'thank you' to the fans giving this newsletter a chance
On Tuesday, we looked at the pitchers on the roster bubble for the Royals heading into Spring Training. It’s a bit of a mess as guys like Daniel Lynch and Alec Marsh could be used in the bullpen out of the gate or stay stretched out in Triple-A in case of injury.
The offensive side is much cleaner, barring the addition of a new name, which looks increasingly unlikely.
While we’re not exactly sure how the Royals will line up on Opening Day, the offensive roster itself is pretty clear.
Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin will split catching responsibilities. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are locked into SS and 1B/DH duties, of course. Some combination of Michael Massey, Jonathan India and Maikel Garcia will man 2B and 3B, with the odd man out potentially serving time in LF.
Kyle Isbel will showcase his Gold Glove-caliber defense in center. Hunter Renfroe and MJ Melendez are locks for the roster, whether they platoon in RF or Melendez reprises his role in LF most days.
That’s 10 of the 13 spots, regardless how the starting lineup shakes out, but here’s my guess for March 27 against the Guardians:
India DH
Witt SS
Pasquantino 1B
Perez C
Massey 2B
Melendez LF
Renfroe RF
Garcia 3B
Isbel CF
You might quibble with Massey and Melendez hitting back-to-back as left-handers, but I’ve convinced myself MJ’s new swing will portend better results in 2025. Matt Quatraro may choose to split up the lefties with Renfroe but, at the end of the day, you get your better hitters the most at-bats, and I believe Melendez will be the better hitter.
Regardless, those names feel like pretty safe prognostications for Opening Day, which leaves three bench spots open for the taking this spring.
How the Royals choose to build out their bench is up for debate. They’ll need a fourth outfielder, and even with the flexibility of Garcia, Massey and India, I’d imagine a utilityman is high on the list of “wants” if not an outright “need.”
With that, let’s get into the competition for bench spots 2-4 behind Fermin.
Infielders
Nick Loftin (2 Minor League Options Remaining)
The plate approach has been good (borderline great) but the results… not so much. Parts of two seasons have resulted in a .229/.307/.295 slash but with nearly elite chase (23.4%), whiff (15.6%), walk (9.6%) and strikeout (15.1%) rates that at least show he has a plan when he steps to the dish. A .392 BABIP carried his .323 average in 2023, so we can’t exactly look at that season and expect him to become an above-average hitter.
Loftin simply doesn’t hit the ball hard enough (career hard-hit rate of 28.7%, per Baseball Savant) but he can handle 1B, 2B and 3B, and has dabbled in the outfield. He’s not exciting, but if your utilityman can competently play three positions, draw a walk and put the ball in play, that’s close to a half-win player over the course of a full season.
Opening Day Prediction: Major League Roster
Nick Pratto (0 Options)
It’s decision time for the Royals and Pratto. Outside of his patient approach and ability to draw a walk, he’s the polar opposite of Loftin. Pratto plays one position (the least important on the field, and one that’s more than adequately occupied by Pasquantino and Perez), whiffs at an unsustainable rate (35.3% in 2023, his most recent crack at the Majors) and struck out in more than one-third of his Big League plate appearances.
Outside of a mammoth Spring Training showing in 2024, there’s been no indication he’s a big leaguer. That said, he’s got a decent prospect pedigree as a former first-round pick and would almost certainly be claimed off waivers, as I discussed with Kevin O’Brien (Royals Reporter) on X.
He’ll take some reps in the outfield this spring, per Anne Rogers, as a last-gasp attempt to make the team, but I just don’t see it working in Kansas City at this point.
Opening Day Prediction: DFA or Minor Trade for a Player with Options
Cavan Biggio (Non-Roster Invite)
This next trio comprises the biggest infield competition among non-roster invitees. Harold Castro and Tyler Tolbert also received invitations to Big League camp, but they’re more “camp bodies” than competition for the roster.
Biggio is the most recognizable name, by far, for baseball fans. I guess I’m old, but it’s hard to believe this will be his age-30 season. As a rookie in 2019, he was a legitimate force for Toronto, generating 2.6 fWAR with a keen eye at the plate and good power, particularly for a second baseman, with a .195 ISO. He’s an older, more established version of Loftin at this point with minimal pop left in the bat and less reliable defense. But he’s a shot worth taking on a minor league deal and adds some depth to the organization.
Opening Day Prediction: Organizational Depth at Triple-A
Javier Vaz (Non-Roster Invite)
Vaz is the wild card heading into his age-24 season, as evidenced by Steamer projecting him for one (1!) plate appearance and ZiPS projecting him for a whopping 114 games. Through three seasons in the minors, he’s displayed elite bat-to-ball skills with contact rates of 86.8%, 91.2% and 89.5%, most recently at Double-A in 2024. His extremely patient approach (38.9% swing rate last season) led to a .375 OBP at Northwest Arkansas, where he bounced all over the diamond — 89 games at 2B, 7 at SS, 16 in LF and 16 in CF.
Opening Day Prediction: Advances to Triple-A with a Chance to Debut in Kansas City in 2025
Cam Devanney (Non-Roster Invite)
A primary shortstop, Devanney also dabbled at 2B and 3B in Omaha last season. Big chase (32.7% O-Swing) and swing-and-miss (16.2% SwStr) are going to hold him back, but there’s power when he does make contact. Devanney’s .254/.336/.445 slash at Triple-A as a 27-year-old is nothing special for the level, good for a 102 wRC+, but he’d be the next man up at SS.
Opening Day Prediction: Triple-A, but Major League-Ready Should He Be Needed
Outfielders
Dairon Blanco (3 Options)
Blanco provided one of my favorite Royals moments of 2024 when he swatted a pair of homers (including a grand slam) on Aug. 17 in Cincinnati — then followed it up the next day with another dinger. (Long live the crayon bat.) Unfortunately for Blanco, those three long balls and eight RBI represented more than 75% of his season-long production as a pinch running specialist with 31 steals. Perhaps the biggest drawback though is his defense — despite the 97th-percentile sprint speed, per Baseball Savant, he posted -2 outs above average in the outfield — making him too much of a one-trick pony.
Opening Day Prediction: Triple-A, but First Man Up If Others Fail
Nelson Velazquez (0 Options)
Velazquez might be the most intriguing name on the bubble for the Royals, at least for me. He’s worth a deep dive at some point this spring to find out what went wrong in 2024, but he’s now out of options and will need to make the roster to avoid a DFA. I can’t see KC cutting him loose after a 132 wRC+ campaign just two seasons ago. Luck did go his way in 2023, in some respects, with a 32.1% HR/FB ratio.
That doesn’t fully explain Velazquez’s struggles in 2024, however, when he hit .200/.274/.366 and posted -0.5 fWAR before being demoted in June. He actually chased less, made more contact in the zone and had a lower SwStr% compared to his breakout 2023 — he just didn’t hit the ball as hard or pull it nearly as often.
There was, at one time, some magic in the bat that Kansas City could absolutely use in the outfield. Coupled with his lack of minor league options, I think the Royals give him a shot to re-establish himself in 2025.
Opening Day Prediction: Major League Roster
Joey Wiemer (1 Option)
Wiemer is the forgotten man in the India-Brady Singer swap from earlier this offseason, but I’m not sold he’s simply the “toss-in” he’s being treated as. At 6’4” and 225 pounds, he’s a physical specimen who’s displayed defensive prowess in center with both the glove and his arm, borderline elite speed on the bases and relative power.
As you might expect from the lack of excitement around acquiring Wiemer, it’s not all sunshine and roses for the 26-year-old. After teasing his speed-power skills in 2023 with Milwaukee with a .204/.283/.362 slash, 13 homers and 11 steals, he registered just 28 plate appearances in 2024. The season was a bit of a disaster as he hit the injured list on three separate occasions and was shipped to Cincinnati on July 30 in a deal centered around Frankie Montas.
Like Devanney, it’s the contact skills that need to improve for him to tap into game power. Unlike Blanco, Wiemer boasts a bit of untapped upside — he’s got the speed to replace Blanco’s production on the basepaths but with the promise of a player who slugged .520 in Triple-A in 2022.
I’m a sucker for a post-hype prospect.
Opening Day Prediction: Major League Roster
Drew Waters (1 Option)
I’m about to unravel my case for Wiemer by saying this, but Waters was at one time the same reclamation project. After three years in the Royals system, the shine has worn off. He’s got nearly a full season’s worth of Major League action under his belt across 2022-2024 with middling results: .229/.306/.396 slash, 13 homers, 56 runs, 51 RBI and 16 SB. Waters compiled 1.2 fWAR during that stretch in KC, largely on the back of his baserunning and defense. Like others on our list, he doesn’t make enough contact — including in the minors — to steal a bench spot.
Opening Day Prediction: Triple-A
Tyler Gentry (2 Options)
In five plate appearances with the big club last season, Gentry simply looked overmatched. It’s hard to glean a lot from that sort of sample but the eye test was pretty ubiquitous. He rocketed through High-A and Double-A in 2021 and 2022 but has hit somewhat of a wall in Triple-A over the last two seasons, managing a 103 wRC+ in 2023 followed by a 99 in 2024.
At the risk of looking like I’m copy/pasting from above, the issues stem from his contact skills. He doesn’t swing much yet finds a way to chase 23% of the time, leading to SwStr rates of 9.5% (not terrible) and 12.1% (getting worse) in his last two minor league campaigns.
He’s little more than a pinch runner/defensive replacement heading into his age-26 season.
Opening Day Prediction: Repeats Triple-A
In summary, I’ve got Loftin making the team as a utilityman, Wiemer as a high-upside fourth outfielder and Velazquez as the rebound candidate who could take playing time and at-bats from Renfroe, Melendez or both.
Spring Training games start TOMORROW! These season preview-type posts are a lot of fun, and it’s good to re-educate myself on how guys performed in past years after an offseason focused on the Chiefs. But I’m beyond ready for live Statcast data, postgame quotes and new information.
While you’re here, I wanted to quickly share my appreciation for being included in your Royals reading lists by subscribing, following on X and allowing me to share my thoughts on KC baseball. I’m blown away by the support I’ve received over the last few weeks from readers and fellow Royals content creators.
My goal with Royals Data Dugout isn’t to pile up subscriber numbers or show off a following on X. It’s to connect with the community of engaged Royals fans who are hungry for every bit of information available. That said, I’m a goal-oriented person — the type who’s motivated when I give myself something to strive for. When I started this project, I hoped to reach 50 Substack subscribers and 50 X followers by Opening Day.
It’s not much in the landscape of baseball writers, podcasters and analysts, but I’m nonetheless proud and honored to surpass both of those goals — with more than FIVE WEEKS left until Opening Day. It’s a testament to the love Royals fans have for their team, and I hope to add a little something to the conversation in 2025 and beyond. Thank you!
Maybe it's because I saw him triple in bottom of the 9th against San Diego to ignite a walkoff rally last year, but even before then, I fell in love with the possibility of what Nelly's bat could be in the middle of the lineup. At this point, I don't know if he'll ever get there, but I can't bring myself to give up on the dream yet.