Spring Training Notebook — Vol. 2
Leading performers and Statcast standouts as we near the midway point of spring camp
We’re bearing down on the midway point of Spring Training, and while an entire spring’s worth of plate appearances and pitches aren’t enough to draw sweeping conclusions, we can at least begin to delineate “good” camps from “bad.” Even then, the numbers only matter for a select number of guys trying to prove themselves, whether they’re veterans fighting for a place on the Opening Day roster or prospects looking to impress the organization.
For example, among the 24 Royals pitchers who’ve tossed more than two innings, about half of them own ERAs over 5.00, and only half of those guys’ performances matter at all.
Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Lucas Erceg are on that list. Unless they get hurt or forget how to pitch, no one cares what the numbers say. Conversely, Carlos Hernandez, Thomas Hatch and Junior Fernandez are also on that list, and their numbers may determine if they’re with Kansas City on March 27 or looking for a job elsewhere.
That’s a long-winded way of saying these stats, of course, are to be consumed with the usual small-sample caveats, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a little fun looking into the data just as we did with the first edition of this Spring Training Notebook.
Front-Page Performers
MJ Melendez: Here’s a name you haven’t read about yet this spring. (Kidding.) I’d like to go five minutes without talking about Melendez, but the truth is, he’s sort of the story of spring. With the failure to bring in a big name outfielder, Melendez’s progression is perhaps the most important storyline of the early part of 2025. Since the first edition of the notebook on Feb. 25, he’s done nothing but rake: .389/.421/.889, 93.5 MPH average exit velocity, 50% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate. Thing is… the issues that have plagued him throughout his career are still prevalent: 51.4% O-Swing, 25% whiff, 21% K during that same stretch. You can live with the swing-and-miss as long as he’s barreling the baseball when he does make contact, but, even as an MJ believer, I can’t say I fully believe he’s turned a corner until we see it for a prolonged stretch in April and beyond.
Daniel Lynch: For all the talk about shifting Lynch to a full-time bullpen role or keeping him stretched out in Triple-A (my preferred approach) to begin the season, he’s ended up as the pitching star of camp to this point. Seven innings, six hits, six strikeouts and no free passes has led to a sparkling 1.29 ERA. It’s impossible to say whether the performance is due to his shorter outings, which would lend credence to turning him into a reliever, or if he’s found another gear. Other than the changeup with four more inches of drop than last season (103 tjStuff+, 69% O-Swing, 20% whiff, 14.3% hard-hit rate), his arsenal doesn’t appear to be much different than in the past. But he’s earned his flowers and might be turning the fifth-starter role into a true competition after Kris Bubic got knocked around some by the Mariners on Wednesday.
Statcast Stars
Vinnie Pasquantino: For such an imposing presence reminiscent of the old-school first basemen we grew up watching, Pasquatch has never flashed the kind maximum exit velocities you’d expect. Not that he’s without raw power — his 112.2 max EV was top third among qualified hitters last season — but it’s always seemed like there could more in the tank for a guy his size. On Feb. 25 (hours after I’d published volume 1 of the notebook), he smashed a 113.4 MPH groundout that would represent a new career-best EV if this was the regular season.
Maikel Garcia: For all the Melendez talk (myself included), Garcia’s been my favorite performer of camp. Despite some uncertainty surrounding his role — super utility, full-time third baseman, some work in center — he’s done nothing but mash at the plate. Since the start of Spring Training, he’s slashed .389/.450/.500 with a Judge-ian 96.1 average EV and 56.3% hard-hit rate. On top of the quality contact, he’s struck out just once, owns a 100% zone contact rate and whiffed just 6% of the time.
Bobby Witt Jr.: Across 16 plate appearances since Feb. 25, Witt’s looked like his usual MVP candidate self, racking up a .429/.500/.786 slash with a 95.2 MPH average EV and 55.6% hard-hit rate.
Cole Ragans: Ragans got a little revenge Thursday night against the Cubbies after they walloped him in his previous start. There’s no Statcast data from that most recent outing, when he induced eight swinging strikes and a couple foul tips for six strikeouts across three frames, but in spite of the 8.59 ERA, his stuff has remained excellent throughout the spring. Just like the two star hitters I’ve already mentioned, you don’t need me to tell you Ragans is nasty — but it’s no less exciting to watch him flash five above-average pitches as we eagerly anticipate the opener against Cleveland.
Tyson Guerrero: Guerrero’s added almost eight inches of sweep to his slider, boosting it from a 98 tjStuff+ last season to 108 this spring, the type of breaker combined with his solid curveball that can carry a left-hander in a middle relief role. It’s led to four punchouts over three innings of work.
Junior Fernandez: The results haven’t been great but, boy, the velocity is eye popping. That combination of 98 MPH four-seamers and sinkers is sure tantalizing but he’ll have to rein in the command to make it work.
Mound Machines
Jonathan Bowlan: As mentioned in the introduction, a lot of the surface numbers for Royals pitchers aren’t pretty. Bowlan is one of the exceptions, firing four innings with six strikeouts and two walks for a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP this spring as it was announced he’d transition full-time to a bullpen role. His four-seamer, which he’s used for 50% of his offerings, is up 1.5 MPH to 95.8 and his tjStuff+ numbers have increased year-over-year across the board, save for the curveball he’s thrown precisely once.
Ben Kudrna: The 22-year-old top prospect has impressed in Surprise. He’s yet to allow a run across four innings of work, allowing three hits and a walk with three strikeouts. Despite mostly relying on a below-average fastball, it’s the rest of his arsenal that stands out. His 105 tjStuff+ changeup features good ride and has led to a 33.3% whiff, similar to the mid-80s slider/cutter.
Struggle Bus
Carter Jensen: One of my favorite prospects in the Royals system, Jensen is nonetheless struggling in Big League camp. Through 18 plate appearances, he’s recorded just one hit, struck out four times and owns a .077/.294/.308 slash. That on-base percentage is thanks to four walks he’s worked, one of his calling cards as a prospect, but the 31% whiff is the clearest indication he’s not quite ready for MLB pitching.
Kyle Isbel: Isbel did gather a pair of knocks Thursday night to help his line tremendously (remember, it doesn’t take much at this point in spring), but it’s still not been a pleasant camp for the glove-first center fielder. There’s a chance Garcia takes some work from him this season, particularly against left-handed pitching, and an 80.4 MPH EV and 22.2% hard-hit rate (with a 40% O-Swing) aren’t going to prevent the Royals from platooning more aggressively in 2025.
Ross Stripling: There’s no need to rehash Stripling here after taking a deeper look earlier this week, as the 22.50 ERA speaks for itself. It was a worthwhile gamble to see if the Royals staff could work its magic on a reclamation project, but it appears Stripling’s stuff just isn’t what it once was.
News and Notes
Salvador Perez: The captain suffered a laceration under his eye after a backswing appeared to catch his facemask Wednesday against the Mariners, but he’s back in the lineup Friday. Crisis averted.
Adam Duvall: Yes, the Royals are still open to added competition in the outfield, evidenced by the reports earlier this week that Duvall turned down an offer from KC. Duvall seems pretty redundant with Hunter Renfroe, in my opinion, so it’s not a move I would’ve loved, but it’s nonetheless *something* that the front office hasn’t closed up shop.
Jac Caglianone: Is that dude.